A weekend that began with a heartfelt tribute to the best boy, Ben Herbstreit, ended with several shock defeats for some championship contenders while others strengthened their case to be considered among the top teams in the nation.
How did it impact the postseason outlook? In our latest College Football Playoff Predictions, we use the latest AP Poll Top 25 to guide a projection of how the 2024-2024 College Football Playoff 12-team bracket could look.
College Football Playoff Predictions | First Round
- No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 12 Boise State Broncos
- No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels
- No. 7 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide
- No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The College Football Playoff predictions received a significant shakeup in Week 11. The Georgia Bulldogs were dominated in defeat by the Ole Miss Rebels, and how far they fall as a result will dominate the conversation in Tuesday’s ranking show. The AP Poll slid them down to 11th, meaning they would miss out on a spot in the 12-team tournament if these were the final rankings.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Miami Hurricanes also caused a significant stir in Week 11, succumbing to their first defeat of the season against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. While they dropped eight spots in the AP Poll, Mario Cristobal’s team is still the highest-ranked ACC team, ensuring that — if we take that to mean they win the title over the SMU Mustangs — they qualify as one of the top four conference winners. The Boise State Broncos sit just behind.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Quarterfinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 BYU Cougars vs. No. 6 Penn State
- Peach Bowl: No. 4 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 5 Ohio State
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 8 Tennessee
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 7 Indiana
The four highest-ranked conference champions, according to our Ap Poll-based College Football Playoff predictions, will be BYU (Big 12), Miami (ACC), Oregon (Big Ten), and Texas (SEC), with those four teams securing first-round byes. According to multiple reports, those conferences will automatically place teams into contract-specific and location-related bowls, as listed above.
Ashton Jeanty and Boise State would give Oho State a good game in the first round, as they did to Oregon, but our College Football Playoff predictions suggest they’d come up short. That sets up an intriguing quarterfinal between the Hurricanes and Buckeyes. Could Cam Ward keep pace with the Ohio State run game while overcoming a stellar defensive unit?
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
Indiana locks in a Sugar Bowl date with Texas after overcoming Alabama in the first round. Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosiers running game would cause too many problems for the Crimson Tide defense for Jalen Milroe to outscore. Tennessee’s defense and run game should be enough to overcome the Fighting Irish, setting up a date Oregon in the Rose Bowl.
Finally, the importance of securing home-field advantage becomes abundantly clear in these projections. Our CFN FPM metric makes Ole Miss a favorite at a neutral venue, but gives the Nittany Lions a 1.5-point advantage in Beaver Stadium.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Semifinal
- Orange Bowl: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 5 Ohio State
- Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 6 Penn State
In our College Football Playoff predictions, Oregon takes down Tennessee in the Rose Bowl to book a spot in the semifinals. Our College Football Playoff predictions pit them against a Big Ten foe they avoided in regular season play. Both teams have dominant defenses and ludicrously good ground games, making for an intriguing matchup to decide who plays in the title game.
While Indiana has been one of the fairytale stories of the season, gliding to a 10-0 record against all expectations, their ceiling is likely to be the quarterfinals, especially if they come up against a team like Texas. The Hoosiers had their struggles against the Michigan Wolverines defense in Week 11, and the Longhorns have one of the best units in the nation and a better offense.
College Football Playoff Predictions | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Texas
While Oregon vs. Penn State has the potential to be an impressive semifinal matchup to watch, the CFN FPM gives the Ducks a 10-point advantage on a neutral site. Much had been made in the preseason about a 12-team format cheapening the postseason tournament, but it’s still possible for the best team in the country to make their way unabated to the big game.
Our College Football Playoff predictions see Dan Lanning’s team take on the Longhorns in a clash of the two highest-seeded teams in the National Championship Game. Texas and Ohio State would be a much closer semifinal than the Cotton Bowl clash involving Oregon, with Steve Sarkisian’s team favored by a cigarette paper margin. Could they beat Oregon though?
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.