The College Football Playoff quarterfinals are almost upon us, and fanbases from all eight teams are excitedly looking forward to their marquee matchups. Which teams are best positioned to advance this week, and who will lift the ultimate prize in January?
Our College Football Playoff predictions use the College Network Football Playoff Meter (FPM) to project every remaining game of the 12-team bracket and predict which team will be crowned the national champions in Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Jan. 20, 2025.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Quarterfinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Boise State Broncos vs. No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions
- Peach Bowl: No. 4 Arizona State Sun Devils vs. No. 5 Texas Longhorns
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Boise State and Penn State get things started on New Year’s Eve in the Fiesta Bowl. The Broncos are used to defying expectations and played Oregon extremely close early in the season. Ashton Jeanty is arguably the best player in the nation and will take some stopping. Still, the Nittany Lions have a ferocious defense and Penn State has a 73.8% chance of emerging victorious.
Get set for a New Year’s Day football feast as Arizona State and Texas meet in the Peach Bowl. Cameron Skattebo is the epitome of a do-it-all back, and the Sun Devils’ offense is humming behind the dominant rusher and QB Sam Leavitt. Yet, our College Football Playoff predictions give the Longhorns a 73% chance of winning. There aren’t many better defenses in college football.
The picture postcard sunset in Pasadena is the backdrop to the tie of the round, as the Buckeyes and Ducks duel in the Rose Bowl. Their regular season matchup was one of the games of the year, and there is no reason to expect anything other than fireworks as day turns to night in California. CFN FPM gives Oregon the smallest of advantages, with a 50.8% win probability.
The SEC makes their traditional postseason pilgrimage to Louisiana for the Sugar Bowl, with Georgia entertaining Notre Dame. Although our College Football Playoff predictions give the Bulldogs a 52.5% chance of victory, that doesn’t factor in the absence of starting quarterback Carson Beck.
The Fighting Irish could pull off a Sugar Bowl shock, but it’s hard to bet against a Kirby Smart-led team in the postseason.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Semifinal
- Orange Bowl: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 2 Georgia
- Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 5 Texas
Our College Football Playoff predictions pit Penn State and Georgia together in the Orange Bowl, in a clash of two similar teams. Both are built on dominant defenses and strong ground games, with Trevor Etienne and Nicholas Singleton at the forefront of their offenses.
James Franklin’s reputation for big-game collapses doesn’t factor into our 63.6% win probability in favor of the Bulldogs.
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While Penn State vs. Georgia has the potential to be one-sided, a potential Oregon vs. Texas matchup in the Cotton Bowl would be a much closer affair. Our metric gives the Ducks a 53.4% chance of winning that game, equating to a two-point spread line.
Although the Longhorns’ defense is as good at creating pressure as any in the country, they’ve yet to face a quarterback with the same smarts as Dillon Gabriel. Meanwhile, the Ducks’ defense can potentially expose some Texas offensive frailty.
College Football Playoff Predictions | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Georgia
Before these two teams even set on the (hypothetical) field, it would be a matchup bursting with storylines as Dan Lanning adopts the apprentice role against his former master, Smart. The Oregon head coach has established himself as one of the best coaches in the sport, and the College Football Playoff National Championship Game could be a passing of the baton moment.
CFN FPM gives the Ducks a 55.6% chance of beating Georgia, and that doesn’t consider the ramifications of running a backup quarterback throughout this potential playoff run. Gunner Stockton has been roundly praised by the Bulldogs staff, but having Jordan Burch and Matayo Uiagalelei in your face is one heck of a difficult propostion.
By the time this game rolls around, quarterback Gabriel could also be in a position to set the record for most passing touchdowns in a DI college football career, currently held by Miami Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward. Becoming a national champion and all-time record setter would be quite a way to end a career for the Oregon quarterback.
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