College football realignment and the expansion of the College Football Playoff have created a Wild, Wild West where every week anything is possible, and every result has a significant result on projections and predictions for bowl season and beyond.
How did it impact the postseason outlook? In our latest College Football Playoff Predictions, we use the updated AP Poll Top 25 rankings to guide a projection of how the 2024-2024 College Football Playoff 12-team bracket could look.
College Football Playoff Predictions | First Round
- No. 5 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils
- No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide
- No. 7 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 10 Indiana Hoosiers
- No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 9 Ohio State Buckeyes
Week 14 really put the cat amongst the pigeons, with losses for Ohio State and the Miami Hurricanes shaking up the College Football Playoff predictions. Mario Cristobal’s team dropped out of contention entirely with their defeat to the Syracuse Orange, as they missed out on a place in the ACC title game, and the AP Poll dropped them six spots, crucially behind a three-loss SEC team.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Ohio State dropped five spots to seventh, which isn’t as far as our intial College Football Playoff predictions expected. That would still leave the Buckeyes with a road test in the first round but keeps them in striking distance of Penn State and the loser of the SEC Championship Game for a potential final rankings climb. We’re yet to see how the committee handles a title game loss.
Securing a home-field advantage in the first round will be critical. Of the matchups in our College Football Playoff predictions, the home team would likely be favored in all except the Tennessee vs. Ohio State matchup. As good as Arizona State has been this year, traveling across the country for a game in a cold Beaver Stadium full of rabid Nittany Lions fans is a daunting task.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Quarterfinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Boise State Broncos vs. No. 5 Penn State
- Peach Bowl: No. 3 SMU Mustangs vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 9 Ohio State
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 7 Georgia
The four highest-ranked conference champions, according to our latest College Football Playoff predictions, will be Boise State (Mountain West), SMU (ACC), Oregon (Big Ten), and Texas (SEC), with those four teams securing first-round byes. According to multiple reports, those conferences will automatically place teams into contract-specific and location-related bowls, as listed above.
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The Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl clashes thrown together by our College Football Playoff predictions give us incredible rematches of matchups from the 2024 season. Who wouldn’t want to watch Oregon take on Ohio State again? Meanwhile, there’s a good chance that Texas and Georgia will play out a trilogy with a repeat of the SEC Championship Game in the quarterfinals.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Semifinal
- Orange Bowl: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
- Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 5 Penn State
The results of our quarterfinal predictions see Texas overcome Georgia for the second time in the 2024 season (assuming they beat the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game) to set up a semifinal date with Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl.
The Fighting Irish’s ground game and strong defense would be too much for Miami in the Peach Bowl, but could they compete with the Longhorns’ ferocious defense in the semifinal?
Meanwhile, Oregon and Penn State will face off in the Big Ten Championship Game this coming weekend. As long as the College Football Playoff Selection Committee doesn’t penalize title game losses too heavily, there’s a chance they meet again in the semifinals.
Two strong ground games and two solid defenses should make for an exciting game that may be separated by Dillon Gabriel’s prowess.
College Football Playoff Predictions | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Texas
Oregon and Texas have been among the top-ranked teams in the country throughout the season, so it’s almost poetic that our college football bowl projections bring them together in the biggest game of them all: the College Football Playoff National Championship Game.
The Ducks’ dominant win over the Washington Huskies in Week 14 confirmed their place at the top of the college football tree. Meanwhile, the Longhorns’ win over the Texas A&M Aggies showcased that their defensive superiority is enough to overcome their offensive fragilities. This would be a game for the ages between two powerhouses.
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