The landscape of college football is becoming more and more like the NFL as the years go by. The similarities grew even further with the establishment of the 12-team playoff in 2024. While both levels experienced a lack of competitiveness during the first round of their respective playoff, the level of criticism differed.
One college football analyst pointed that out, expressing the negativity college football faced during and after the first round. Was the criticism justified?
Joel Klatt Compares Lack of Quality Between NFL Playoffs and CFP, Doubts Criticism Will Be the Same
It’s no secret that the first round of the College Football Playoff in 2024 produced, essentially, all blowouts. The criticism for the new 12-team format followed, calling for changes to be made that manufacture a better, more competitive product on the field.
The first 3 Wild Card Playoff games have been worse than the 1st round CFP games
We had to endure incredible negativity in the discourse after/during the 1st round of the CFP
Doubt we get that here
— Joel Klatt (@joelklatt) January 12, 2025
In a post on X on Sunday afternoon, Joel Klatt, a Fox Sports College Football analyst, compared it to the NFL’s Wild-Card Round, claiming the criticism of lack of competitiveness wouldn’t be the same.
“The first 3 Wild Card Playoff games have been worse than the 1st round CFP games,” he wrote. “We had to endure incredible negativity in the discourse after/during the 1st round of the CFP. Doubt we get that here.”
For reference, the first-round games of the CFP had an average margin of 19.3, with the closest margin being the Notre Dame Fighting Irish victory over the Indiana Hoosiers at 27-17. Notre Dame was up 27-3 at one point before allowing two garbage-time touchdowns.
The largest margin was the Penn State Nittany Lions’ 38-10 dismantling of the SMU Mustangs. At halftime, the Nittany Lions led 28-0. The final first-round game was the most highly-anticipated: a matchup between the No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes and No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers. At the end of the first quarter, the Buckeyes held a commanding 21-0 lead on their way to a 42-17 victory.
The first-round games of the CFP were not close, but, as Klatt pointed out, neither were the NFL Wild-Card Round matchups. Klatt’s post was sent out on Sunday afternoon, prior to the Sunday Night Football game. At the time of his post, the average margin was 17.5.
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The Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens cruised to victories of 20 and 14 points, respectively. After giving up an early touchdown, the Buffalo Bills scored 31 points unanswered to defeat the Denver Broncos 31-7. Klatt posted during the Philadelphia Eagles-Green Bay Packers game — it ended with the Eagles on top 22-10, but the game was never very competitive.
Klatt has a point. The NFL will likely not receive much, if any, criticism for the lack of competitiveness in its first round. But that comes with an important caveat: the NFL playoff seeds are determined solely on the standings, while the CFP is crafted by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee.
Each year, the Selection Committee seems to be criticized. In 2023, they were heavily criticized for leaving out the previously unbeaten Florida State Seminoles. After Mike Norvell’s team was blasted by the Georgia Bulldogs by 60 points in the Orange Bowl, questions arose over whether the Bulldogs were the best team in the country—but they didn’t make the four-team playoff.
This year, more criticism came due to the new format of the CFP. It will likely need changes regarding the top four seeds, who all lost in the quarterfinals.
The point is, with a man-made seeding system, there will always be gaffes here and there. As shown in both the CFP and NFL, blowouts are bound to occur when the skill difference is so vast. The point of the first round is that the better teams advance — which they have in each of the playoff games at both levels.
Football doesn’t share the same amount of variance that sports like basketball or baseball possess. The NCAA Basketball Tournament is so successful because upsets are rampant in the sport.
The three-point shot is a perfect example of variance: if a higher-ranked team can’t seem to hit a shot while a lower-seeded team has their best shooting day of the season, a 16-seed can beat a 1-seed.
It’s happened twice in the past seven years and will happen more often in the future. In baseball, a pitcher having the game of his life could end a better team’s season.
That sort of variance just doesn’t exist within the sport of football.
The game’s physical nature creates less of a chance for the smaller, less talented teams to win. A team that is simply bigger and better up front can control the game at the line of scrimmage.
The Baltimore Ravens, led by star running back Derrick Henry and a slew of skilled linemen, ran all over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday night. The exact Ravens to Steelers rushing-yard margin: 299 to 29. Complete domination at the line of scrimmage, and it was the catalyst behind them building a 21-0 lead on the way to a 14-point win.
It doesn’t mean it can’t happen—but it makes it that much more special and memorable when it does. The Northern Illinois Huskies defeated Notre Dame in early September, unquestionably the biggest win in school history; fast-forward four months, and the Fighting Irish are preparing for the National Championship game.
Upsets are still very possible in football; they just happen less often than in other sports.
It could be argued that the less competitive CFP second round should be critiqued more. Each of the top four seeds lost — by an average margin of 14.5.
The semifinals brought out two of the best games in the tournament. But that’s to be expected, as the best teams advance and eventually face off. The NFL playoffs will be the same; as each round goes by, the competitiveness will almost assuredly be higher.
The NFL and CFP first rounds were very similar. They’ll receive very different amounts of criticism. Klatt’s post is correct, but looking at the entire picture could potentially point to a different story than the one he’s portraying. There will always be blowouts in the first round of any sport; it’s inevitable. The level of competitiveness should reach its height at the pinnacle of the sport: the title game.
Although changes are almost certain to happen to the CFP regarding who deserves a bye week and seeding as a whole, it may be impossible to create competitive matchups throughout the entirety of the tournament. The college football landscape is becoming more like the NFL each year — and the postseason will be no different, so different results shouldn’t be expected.
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