The first-ever College Football Playoff rankings for the 12-team playoff era will be released Tuesday night. And while people might think they know what those rankings might look like, only the committee knows exactly how they will rank teams.
It’s not a computer rankings; it’s a group of human beings discussing college football. They’re subjective but loosely follow a set of guidelines laid out by the organization. So, what is the College Football Playoff Committee looking for in their initial rankings?
How Does the College Football Playoff Committee Rank Teams?
According to the College Football Playoff’s website, the committee is guided by a basic hierarchy of criteria.
“The selection committee ranks the teams based on the members’ evaluation of the teams’ performance on the field, using conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, and comparison of results against common opponents,” the College Football Playoff Committee states.
But that doesn’t quite explain how exactly the rankings will be determined.
Unfortunately, that’s not something anyone outside of the selection committee will ever know. These are individuals who watch the games, just like fans. Except they have the responsibility to create the playoff bracket.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
“A talented group of 13 high-integrity individuals with experience as coaches, student-athletes, college administrators and journalists, along with sitting athletics directors, comprise the selection committee,” CFP’s website says.
The committee is made up of the following members: Chris Ault, Chet Gladchuk, Jim Grobe, Warde Manuel (chair), Randall McDaniel, Gary Pinkel, Mack Rhoades, Mike Riley, David Sayler, Will Shields, Kelly Whiteside, Carla Williams and Hunter Yurachek.
We can’t get in the minds of the committee members. We can, however, look to history to see which of the criteria matters the most.
Which Criteria Matters Most to the College Football Playoff Committee?
This year, for the first time in the College Football Playoff era, conference championships really matter. No conference championship, no first-round bye, no matter how good the team (sorry, Notre Dame).
The four highest-ranked conference champions automatically earn first-round byes. Meanwhile, the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion automatically makes the field, even if ranked below the 12 spot.
Historically, performance and strength of schedule have mattered more than simply winning. Last year, an undefeated Florida State Seminoles team missed the four-team playoff altogether. While it’s hard to imagine an undefeated team missing the 12-team playoff, there will almost certainly be teams left out of the postseason that have more wins than some of the teams that make the playoff.
The committee does tend to value head-to-head results and results against common opponents but typically only as a secondary or tertiary measure. It won’t be surprising, for example, if Alabama ranks ahead of Vanderbilt, despite losing to the Commodores.
Ultimately, it’s a subjective endeavor. But with the playoff expanding to 12 teams, perhaps some of the arguments will work themselves out in the end.
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.