College football Week 10 Saturday is finally here! There are multiple matchups with College Football Playoff permutations and several teams looking to secure bowl eligibility. Standout individual performances will make or break those scenarios, but how will they impact your wagers this weekend?
Unsure what to bet on Saturday? Luckily, we’ve got the best college football player props for all of today’s matchups (where offered), starting with the early and mid-afternoon slate.
Saturday College Football Player Props
DJ Giddens Over 94.5 Rushing Yards
The Kansas State Wildcats have the same offensive game plan nearly every week: Let Avery Johnson throw it around, and if that doesn’t work, ride DJ Giddens until his legs fall off. This week the Wildcats face a strong Houston Cougars’ defense.
Expect the Cougars to find some defensive success early, forcing Kansas State into Plan B.
That Plan B involves letting Giddens run wild. I’ve found value at 94.5 yards, a number the Kansas State running back has easily surpassed in three of the last four games. He should run wild in the second half on Saturday.
Jacoby Criswell Under 214.5 Passing Yards
If the Florida State Seminoles defense can hold Cam Ward under 210 yards, it can certainly hold Jacolby Criswell under that number. Expect this to be an Omarion Hampton game, where the North Carolina Tar Heels (for once) rely on their defense and simply control the clock.
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For all of Florida State’s many issues this year, pass defense has not really been one of them. I think we’ll see that Saturday, as the Seminoles hold Criswell under his yardage total.
Aidan Chiles Under 16.5 Rushing Yards
Sack yardage counts against a quarterback’s rushing total, and I foresee plenty of negative rushing yardage for Aiden Chiles on Saturday. The Michigan State Spartans will likely be playing from behind most of the game, meaning their QB won’t get many opportunities to chew into his rushing total.
Instead, three or four sacks could make it so that Chiles has to get closer to 40 or 50 positive rushing yards just to get close to his rushing prop. Expect the Spartans’ quarterback to use his arm more than his legs and stay well under his total.
Dylan Raiola Over 202.5 Passing Yards
I have the Nebraska Cornhuskers on upset alert tomorrow. Upset alerts for player props often mean that the favored quarterback has a lower yardage total than what they could reach because the sportsbooks expect him to make fewer attempts than what the game script actually calls for on Saturday.
At his current yards per attempt average of 7.1, Raiola would need only about 29 attempts to reach 203 yards. He’s averaging over 35 attempts in losses this season.
Jordan James Over 84.5 Rushing Yards
I have very little respect for the Michigan Wolverines as an actual contender, and I think the Oregon Ducks will waltz into the Big House and leave with an easy win.
However, I do think the Wolverines excel at keeping the score of games closer than it should be.
Jordan James should be able to find plenty of running room, and I think that while the game will never be in doubt in the second half, it’ll be close enough to prevent the Ducks from pulling starters early. Expect a steady dose of James late in the game that helps him easily pass his yardage total.
Tahj Brooks Under 114.5 Rushing Yards
Tahj Brooks has been the heart and soul of the Texas Tech Red Raiders offense this season, but as the team travels to Ames to face the Iowa State Cyclones, I just don’t think the Red Raiders will be in the game script to run Brooks enough to hit his over against a strong defense.
If it were one or the other, I’d probably trust Brooks to hit 115 yards for the fifth straight game, but the combination of a stingy run defense and a lack of late-game carries probably keeps Brooks under. If you like risks, you could parlay this with a score from the Texas Tech rusher to take advantage of juiced parlay odds.
RJ Harvey Over 118.5 Rushing Yards
With a revolving door at the UCF Knights’ quarterback position, RJ Harvey has benefitted from extra carries and extra yards. The Knights finally benefit from not playing an undefeated Big 12 team this week, meaning the game script should be more positive, and their star running back should get plenty of carries.
Expect Harvey to have a few long runs that make it easier for him to get to 119 yards, a number he’s hit in two-straight games after a disappointing mid-year stretch.
Carson Beck Over 254.5 Passing Yards
This number is all over the place across books, and if you want to fade me, you can take under 280.5 yards for the same general odds as you can get over 254.5, if you do some shopping. That being said, I prefer the over here.
Sure, the Florida Gators’ schedule is about to get absurdly hard, but I like the way the team is playing and I like them to keep it close here. If they do, Carson Beck will get to pick apart a struggling secondary while having to keep up the aggression and scoring to maintain a lead.
Beck has torched bad secondaries this year while struggling against solid defenses. I think Florida fits more into the former category, and there should be some room for the Georgia receivers to operate.
Cam Skattebo Over 26.5 Receiving Yards
The Oklahoma State Cowboys’ rushing defense is atrocious, and Arizona State Sun Devils’ running back Cam Skattebo is the opposite of that.
Expect Skattebo to get back to making defenses look silly after he was held somewhat in check last week against Cincinnati. So, what does any of this have to do with receiving?
Arizona State does an excellent job of calling pass plays as an extension of the running game. The Sun Devils love to get Skattebo in space as a receiver, and they don’t only do that when he’s struggling as a runner. Even in huge rushing games against the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Utah Utes, he went well over 27 receiving yards.
Jeremiah Smith Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
It’s weird that we feel like Jeremiah Smith hasn’t had a huge season, despite the fact that he’s been the most consistent receiver in the country. Smith has gone over this number in every game so far this season, and he’s played his best in big games.
So, getting him to reach 70 yards at close to even money feels like stealing. If you’re even more bullish on Smith, there are some alternate overs at plus money that you could choose. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Ohio State Buckeyes freshman phenom reach 100 yards Saturday. That over is +260, for what it’s worth.
Braylon Russell Under 56.5 Rushing Yards
I’m a huge fan of Braylon Russell, and even featured him as one of our top freshmen to watch this season, but he faces a brutal matchup with the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday. The Rebels’ rushing defense is among the best in the country, allowing less than 3.5 yards per carry this season.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Taylen Green run the ball more, and if your book overs rushing attempt props, I’ve seen 8.5 attempts at plus money, but for a more common play, take Russell’s under in a matchup-dependent play.
Cam Ward Over 309.5 Passing Yards
While some of these plays are due to sportsbooks undervaluing the impact of certain matchups, this is a play for the opposite. Cam Ward has gone over 310 yards in all but one game this year, and as he’s still a primary contender for the Heisman, the Miami Hurricanes will be doing its best to help him excel.
Big numbers like this are scary, but Ward is certainly capable of going of reaching and exceeding it. At this point in the season, better on good players is typically a good play.
Max Brosmer Under 204.5 Passing Yards
Minnesota vs. Illinois is likely going to be an old school Big Ten matchup, and old school Big Ten matchups don’t typically feature quarterbacks who throw for over 200 yards. Max Brosmer played well last week against a bad Maryland defense, but he had not reached 200 yards the previous two weeks.
The Illinois Fighting Illini are in the midst of a losing streak, but the defense hasn’t forgotten how to play, and the Illini should have no trouble limiting Minnesota Golden Gopherd QB Brosmer.
Diego Pavia Under 49.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbooks don’t typically list prop bets for injured players, but while Diego Pavia is playing Saturday, he’s banged up with an ankle injury. Accordingly, expect the coaching staff to limit the amount of designed carries for their quarterback.
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He’s passed this number several times this season, but the Auburn Tigers’ defense is stingy and should play a lot of zone, limiting his ability to scramble. Expect Pavia to rely more on his arm than his legs Saturday. It wouldn’t surprise me if he had a good game, I would just expect that to come as a passer more than a runner.
LeQuint Allen Over 59.5 Rushing Yards
What’s the easiest way to bounce back from an embarrassing loss in which the quarterback threw three pick sixes? How about establishing the run in the next outing?
Syracuse Orange running back LeQuint Allen has been impressive this season when the team has run the ball consistently. Against a hot Virginia Tech Hokies team, I think the Orange become a bit more methodical, controlling possession and allowing their bruising back to do the heavy lifting.
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