Week 7 was a great bounce-back week after a brutal 1-6 Week 6 showing. The slate info our Week 8 college football picks and predictions doesn’t have a ton of value, but we found some, especially in the big games.
Who should you be backing on Saturday?
Week 7 College Football Picks and Predictions
Last Week: 4-3-0 (0.571)
This Season: 25-31-0 (0.446)
Overall Record: 106-115-3 (0.480)
For all current betting odds surrounding the college football season, check out our live betting odds and make your plays today!
All lines are via Draft Kings Sportsbook. You can find the best available odds from sportsbooks all over the country below as well.
Air Force -10.5 (-110) vs. Navy +10.5 (-110)
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I love a good matchup involving two service academies. It reminds me of old-school football: disciplined, hard-hitting, ground-and-pound football.
After earning a hard-fought win in Laramie, the Air Force Falcons are now 6-0 and in the driver’s seat to not only win the Mountain West but go undefeated and contend for a New Year’s Six bowl.
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The biggest difference between the two teams this year is their approach. With the NCAA eliminating cut blocks, Air Force chose to continue running the triple option. The Navy Midshipmen are running a modified version with more passing worked in.
This is going to come down to the Midshipmen being able to stop the Falcons’ rushing attack. They are the best rushing attack in the nation and have the second-best offensive success rate. They can also torch teams deep with the highest EPA/pass. The Midshipmen rank worse than 100th in EPA/pass and rush while being 97th in success rate.
This could be a service academy destruction to kick off the slate on Saturday.
Bet: Air Force -10.5 (-110)
Michigan -24 (-110) vs. Michigan State +24 (-110)
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I don’t think much needs to be said about this game. The Michigan Wolverines are top 10 in multiple categories.
- EPA/offense: 5th
- EPA/defense: 9th
- EPA margin (offense – defense): 1st
- Offensive success rate: 6th
- Defensive success rate: 8th
- Net points/drive: 1st
The Michigan State Spartans just aren’t in the same stratosphere as the Wolverines and are coming off of a massive disappointment — losing to Rutgers after being up by 17 on the road. Since Mel Tucker was fired, the Spartans are 0-4 with a record of 0-3-1 against the spread.
This should be a cakewalk for Michigan, who is undefeated against the spread in Big Ten play.
Bet: Michigan -24 (-110)
Arizona State +26.5 (-110) vs. Washington -26.5 (-110)
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The Arizona State Sun Devils are a team in disarray.
They are dealing with injuries across the board and uncertainty at the quarterback position hasn’t helped their season. Despite being in most games this season, the Sun Devils are 1-5. But, they have won their last three against the spread.
First-year head coach Kenny Dillingham has a long journey ahead of him, but he’s doing the right things by getting his young talent playing time when they aren’t expecting to play well this season. Arizona State is set up to take a leap over the next few seasons.
Unfortunately, that won’t help them against Heisman Trophy favorite Michael Penix Jr. and the undefeated Washington Huskies. Sitting at 6-0, the Huskies are 4-2 ATS and have been dominating competition at home winning by an average of 25 points per game, or 32.33 points per game against teams that aren’t in the top 10 in the country.
The passing game will be too much for the Sun Devils, who not only struggle to move the football but don’t have the best success rate (68th) on defense, either.
Bet: Washington -26.5 (-110)
Penn State +4.5 (-110) vs. Ohio State -4.5 (-110)
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One of the biggest games the Big Ten can offer, the Penn State Nittany Lions get their first test of the season — while also on the road. The Ohio State Buckeyes faced Notre Dame in South Bend and was able to come away with a win.
Penn State comes in with an excellent rushing attack led by Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Heck, even Trey Potts has gotten into the mix. They are running the ball at a high rate and doing it successfully with the 14th-best success rate and ranking 18th in EPA/rush.
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The addition of Drew Allar as the starting quarterback has taken this team to a level that has some believing a playoff appearance is possible. They need to take a step against both Michigan and Ohio State, two teams that have given them fits over the years.
If there was a year to beat Ohio State, it’s this year. They are just not the same team as we’ve seen in years past. Kyle McCord has been fine as the starting quarterback, but his performance is not up to what they have been used to with C.J. Stroud.
He has found a connection with Marvin Harrison Jr. over the last three weeks and it’s shown up huge. The Buckeyes have put up 37 and 41 points against conference foes Maryland and Purdue.
This game is honestly a great matchup, but Penn State has the edge in offensive success rate (12th to 29th) and defensive success rate (1st to 24th). EPA/play is similar on offense and defense, but Penn State looks much better across the board with the underlying metrics.
One interesting stat: Penn State is 10-0 in their last 10 games against the spread, including three double-digit covers this season. Ohio State is 2-4 on the season with a record of 1-3 at the Horseshoe. I think James Franklin finally gets a big win on the road against Ohio State and takes one more step toward Indianapolis and the College Football Playoff.
Bet: Penn State +4.5 (-110)
Other Bets
UTSA -2.5 (-110) @ Florida Atlantic
Colorado State +8 (-110) @ UNLV
Georgia State +3.5 (-118) @ Louisiana-Lafayette