Each team has played 14 games this season, but it all comes down to just one. The 2023 College Football National Championship Game pits the reigning champion Georgia Bulldogs against the Cinderella-story TCU Horned Frogs in SoFi Stadium. History will be made in Los Angeles, but which team will be on the right side of it? Our College Football National Championship Game prediction investigates while examining the Georgia vs. TCU odds.
Georgia vs. TCU Odds
- Spread
Georgia (-12.5) - Moneyline
Georgia (-435), TCU (+350) - Over/Under
63 points
Are you ready to sink your dollars into Sonny Dykes and his TCU team? Does Georgia feel like the (Kirby) Smart team to trust your betting bank balance with?
There have been some minor fluctuations in the Georgia vs. TCU odds since our early College Football National Championship Game prediction, so let’s examine them and see if they indicate a seismic shift in what could happen in SoFi Stadium.
Georgia opened as a 13-point favorite via DraftKings Sportsbook, and that’s come in by half a point. With an average margin of victory of 24.6 points and winning 11 of their 14 games this year by more than 13, that isn’t a significant shift other than a touchdown and two field goals advantage will now cover, whereas it wouldn’t have earlier in the week.
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Don’t forget, however, that the Bulldogs only covered 50% of their games this season. Meanwhile, TCU has been one of the most competent teams covering the spread this year. They’re 10-3-1 ATS, covering in 76.9% of their games and by an average of nine points per game. The shrinking of the spread line in the latest Georgia vs. TCU odds makes backing the Horned Frogs ATS even more sense now.
A slight shift in the moneyline — Georgia is now -435 compared to -475 to start the week — and a minor increase in the over/under line (63 compared to 62.5) would suggest that there is money going down on TCU.
The Horned Frogs have hit the over in 57.1% of their games, and an increase in the over/under would suggest a shootout rather than a defensively dominant defense of their title by Georgia. What does our College Football National Championship Game prediction say?
Georgia vs. TCU Prediction
Put the “do not disturb” sign out, grab yourself some popcorn and your favorite beverage, and settle in for some history to be made inside of SoFi Stadium. TCU, an unranked outsider ahead of the season, can become the first team from the Big 12 conference to with the College Football National Championship since the inception of the four-team format.
In a season that began with Texas and Oklahoma absconding to the SEC, it is remarkably the Horned Frogs returning relevance to the conference. Standing in the way of that particular piece of history and the fulfillment of a college football fairytale is a Georgia team with an eye on establishing themselves in history.
Achieving success in college football is difficult. Sustaining it is nearly impossible. With a win in SoFi Stadium, the Bulldogs will become the first team to successfully defend a national title in the College Football Playoff era.
Let’s start our College Football National Championship Game prediction with the overwhelming favorite Bulldogs. Although their ferocious defense took a hit to their reputation against Ohio State, there’s no doubt that they hold the key to success in SoFi Stadium. Ahead of this game, Georgia is the fifth-ranked scoring unit in the nation, allowing just 14.8 points per game. Meanwhile, they rank in the top 25 for both yards allowed per game (304.5) and yards allowed per play (4.95).
While C.J. Stroud and the marvelous Marvin Harrison Jr. dominated a Georgia secondary led by highly-regarded CB Kelee Ringo in the Peach Bowl, the Bulldogs’ defensive run game held firm, and that’s a defining factor in this College Football National Championship Game prediction.
While they may bend in the secondary, the defensive front led by Jalen Carter won’t break against an imposing TCU ground game. Georgia has allowed just six rushing scores, three yards per carry, and 79.93 rushing yards per game in 2022.
If this game descends into a shootout against a high-scoring TCU offense, Stetson Bennett showcased that he’s more than up to the task in the Peach Bowl. Routinely disrespected despite being a Heisman Trophy finalist and leading the Bulldogs to a national title last fall, Bennett has never been considered the architect of Georgia’s success. Against Ohio State, however, he proved he can go toe-to-toe with anyone as a genuine leader of this Bulldogs team.
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Between Bennett, a triple-headed ground game juggernaut featuring Kenny McIntosh, Daijun Edwards, and Kendall Milton, and a plethora of pass catchers led by Brock Bowers, the offense can turn it on when needed.
Behind an impressive offensive line, no team in the nation converts fourth-down opportunities with the same success. Few are as adept on third down, either. If you allow Georgia to make it to the red zone, they score on 97.4% of opportunities. Clinical.
Against Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl, the widely derided and disrespected TCU defense showed that they can limit third and fourth-down opportunities. The Horned Frogs demonstrated they can be disruptive in the red zone and that they could hold a dominant ground game. With Dylan Horton, Dee Winters, Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, and a host of other talented playmakers, TCU can be impactful and put the offense in position to achieve greatness on the biggest stage.
Can TCU win the College Football National Championship? Of course they can. When you’re led by a quarterback like Max Duggan, who has battled and scrapped for every modicum of success that he’s enjoyed this season, there’s always a chance. When you have a wide receiver of the caliber of Quentin Johnston, there’s always a chance. With running backs like Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado, there’s always a chance.
There’s been a lot of focus on Johnston as the key to this game. After all, the freakish WR must be licking his lips at the prospect of facing a Georgia secondary that has allowed over 800 passing yards in the last two games.
Yet, TCU’s offensive identity relies on success in the ground game. Miller is a game-time decision, and while they have talent in the RB room, having their leading rusher absent in the biggest game of the year could be a game-changing issue.
Georgia’s defense may bend violently against Johnston, and that makes this College Football National Championship Game prediction closer than many expect. But ultimately, the only thing that will be broken in SoFi Stadium will be the hearts of the Horned Frogs as the Bulldogs cap off this most unpredictable of college football seasons by making history with their second consecutive national title.
2023 College Football National Championship Game Prediction
Georgia 33, TCU 30
