Winston-Salem is beautiful this time of year. Unfortunately, that’s the nicest thing I can say about Wake Forest outside of its ugly win against a terrible NC State team.
As a reward, the Demon Deacons host the Clemson Tigers, who have torn through their competition, winning and covering in four straight games. Can the Demon Deacons break the streak? Before you run to bet the Tigers, check out our Clemson vs. Wake Forest prediction.
Clemson vs. Wake Forest Betting Preview
All Clemson vs. Wake Forest odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Clemson -13.5 - Spread
Clemson -21 - Moneyline
Clemson -1800, Wake Forest +1000 - Over/Under
62.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 12, Noon ET - Location
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, Winston-Salem, NC. - Predicted Weather at Kick
68 degrees, sunny, four mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas differ here, with FPM leaning seven points more to Wake Forest than the sportsbooks. With a spread of 21 points and a total of 62.5, Vegas implies a final score close to 42-21 in favor of Clemson.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Clemson has been the dominant side in this matchup, with a 71-17-1 overall record and a 15-game win streak. As such, the moneyline isn’t in question. However, as we’ll discuss later in this Clemson vs. Wake Forest prediction, the Tigers may not cover the spread despite the Demon Deacons being 1-4 ATS this year. The last two games between these teams were one-score affairs.
Clemson’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is a bit lower on Clemson than Vegas, but that doesn’t mean it thinks the Tigers might lose.
FPM has Clemson as a 13.5-point favorite, giving it a win probability of 83.5%. The Tigers are favorites in every remaining game this season. The Tigers have at least a 68% chance to win in every remaining game on the schedule, suggesting it’s possible that the Tigers run the table the rest of the way.
- at Wake Forest: 83.5%
- vs. Virginia: 81.1%
- vs. Louisville: 74.2%
- at Virginia Tech: 70.3%
- at Pittsburgh: 68.8%
- vs. The Citadel: 99.9%
- at South Carolina: 81.6%
Wake Forest’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Wake Forest has a 16.5% chance to win on Saturday. The Demon Deacons have a few winnable games remaining, as well as several toss-ups. An away game at Miami represents the hardest game left.
- vs. Clemson: 16.5%
- at UConn: 65.1%
- at Stanford: 51.2%
- vs. California: 35.9%
- at North Carolina: 48.8%
- at Miami: 9.6%
- vs. Duke: 46.2%
Prediction for Clemson vs. Wake Forest
One stat sticks out to me as odd in the midst of Clemson’s recent offensive rejuvenation.
While the Tigers have scored a lot, they haven’t done well when they aren’t gifted excellent field position. In fact, they’ve scored just 12 points on their last 18 drives against starting inside their own 40-yard line against Power Four opponents. If aggregated across the entire season, that’d put them closer to Kent State than an average Power Four offense.
However, it hasn’t mattered as the Tigers are cashing in on short fields, with around five points per drive when given a short field. The defense has given them short fields often.
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Here’s why that matters. The Demon Deacons generally take care of the ball and they don’t commit a lot of penalties. They’re 50th in average opponents’ starting field position, more than 10 yards better than any of Clemson’s previous four opponents.
Of course, the Clemson defense plays a huge part in those teams being ranked so poorly, but given that Wake Forest generally gives opponents poor field position and the Tigers generally struggle to score from poor field position, there’s an opening here for the Demon Deacons to keep things close.
That might not matter if Clemson’s defense applies pressure or int he offense is good enough to simply run through a porous Demon Deacon defense.
Here’s to thinking Dave Clawson is the one to crack that code. Clemson will dominate, but it takes a lot to beat a conference foe by three touchdowns. Clemson rolls, but if Wake Forest makes the Tigers drive the length of the field, it will minimize possessions and make a blowout less likely.
I don’t think it hurts Wake Forest’s case that the offense should be able to find a little bit of success through the air. If that’s the game script, the under will hit too.
Clemson wins, but while the result is never in doubt, the cover is.
Prediction: Clemson 34, Wake Forest 17
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