The expanded 12-team College Football Playoff is serving up some thrilling first-time matchups, including a headline-grabbing showdown between the Clemson Tigers and Texas Longhorns in the opening round.
So, who comes out on top? Our Clemson vs. Texas prediction breaks down everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs in this historic CFP debut clash.
Clemson vs. Texas College Football Playoff First Round Betting Preview
All Clemson vs. Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -9 - Spread
Texas -12.5 - Moneyline
Texas -470, Clemson +360 - Over/Under
50.5 points - Game Time
4:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 21 - Location
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium | Austin, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
TNT/Max
Neither of these teams has cashed bettors out this year … unless you bet against them. Clemson and Texas are both 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
It’s also worth noting Clemson is 1-5 ATS in its previous six outings against SEC opponents.
The under has been the play for both squads as well, with Tigers contests going below the total in four of the past six and Longhorns bouts failing to hit the over in eight of nine.
Clemson’s Winning Probability
At one point, it looked like the Tigers wouldn’t even make the ACC Championship Game. But after a Miami Hurricanes loss in the regular-season finale and a Clemson win in the ACC title game, they’re suddenly right back in the College Football Playoff mix.
That said, their playoff journey might end quickly. The FPM gives Dabo Swinney’s squad less than a 25% chance to upset the Longhorns in Austin.
- at Texas: 24.7%
Texas’ Winning Probability
The Longhorns haven’t looked their best since their regular-season loss to the Georgia Bulldogs, and the overtime heartbreak in the SEC Championship Game has definitely tempered expectations heading into the CFP. Even so, Steve Sarkisian has assembled too much talent to bow out in Round 1.
- vs. Clemson: 75.3%
Prediction for Clemson vs. Texas
Quinn Ewers might not be Texas’ long-term solution, but that’s a problem for another day. Against Clemson, it won’t matter. The Longhorns are simply a bad matchup for the Tigers.
Clemson’s Achilles’ heel is their run defense—they rank 53rd in success rate and 73rd in rushing yards allowed per game (150.5). Meanwhile, Texas’ defense is built to suffocate offenses, ranking among the nation’s best in several key metrics:
- EPA: 3rd
- Dropback success rate: 5th
- Net points per drive: 1st
- Third-down conversion rate: 6th
- Tackles for loss: 12th
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Even if T.J. Parker and Clemson’s pass rush put some heat on Ewers, Texas’ ground attack—anchored by a healthy Kelvin Banks Jr.—should be more than enough to keep the chains moving.
On the other side, Clemson may lean heavily on Cade Klubnik, potentially abandoning the run early. While Klubnik has outshined Ewers statistically this season, he’s still a young quarterback with flaws that South Carolina recently exploited.
Clemson’s edge in penalties (23rd vs. Texas’ 93rd) and turnover margin (+16 to Texas’ +6) gives them a chance to hang around. But ultimately, Texas’ suffocating defense will overwhelm the Tigers and secure the win.
Prediction: Texas 31, Clemson 23
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