As Week 12 of college football approaches, the Iowa State Cyclones, ranked 17th nationally, face off against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames. It’s a pivotal moment for the Cyclones, who’ve amassed seven wins this season but find themselves on a two-game losing streak — their latest loss being a nine-point defeat on the road to Kansas.
This game brings back memories of last year when Iowa State handily defeated Cincinnati 30-10 at Nippert Stadium. This season, both teams come in hungry — one to shake off recent stumbles, the other to secure a chance at postseason play.
For Cincinnati, a win would mean a return to bowl season. For Iowa State, it’s a chance to end its skid and solidify its standing among the nation’s top programs, and continue eyeing a Big 12 title.
Our Cincinnati vs. Iowa State prediction looks at the odds of the Cyclones getting back on track in Week 12.
Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Betting Preview
All Cincinnati vs. Iowa State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Cincinnati -9 - Spread
Iowa State -9.5 - Moneyline
Cincinnati +260, Iowa State -325 - Over/Under
53.5 points - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Jack Trice Stadium | Ames, IA - Predicted Weather at Kick
54 degrees, mostly cloudy, 16 mph winds - How To Watch
FOX
This spread dropped briefly from 8.5 to 7.5 but quickly returned to Iowa State -8.5. The totals haven’t seen much movement either as it opened at 52.5 and has only come up one point to 53.5.
Cincinnati’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Power Metric, the Bearcats have a 25.1% chance of defeating the Cyclones on Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
If the win probabilities hold, Cincinnati will finish its 2024 campaign at 5-7. They’ve already improved on last year’s mark of 3-9, but it would mark the Bearcats’ first back-to-back losing seasons since 2016-2017, when they finished 4-8 each of those years.
- at Iowa State: 25.1%
- at Kansas State: 20.1%
- vs. TCU: 41.1%
Iowa State’s Winning Probability
According to the FPM, Iowa State has a 74.9% chance of defeating Cincinnati on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, the Cyclones will most likely finish 9-3, depending on their final game of the season against Kansas State, which is projected as close to an actual coin flip as you can get. If the Cyclones can find a way to win out, it would be their first 10-win season in program history — a football program that played its first game in 1895.
- vs. Cincinnati: 74.9%
- at Utah: 58.9%
- vs. Kansas State: 49.6%
Prediction for Cincinnati vs. Iowa State
This week, all eyes are on Iowa State’s defense as they return home. The Cyclones are holding opponents to just 18.8 points per game, placing them 19th in Division I — a testament to their defensive discipline.
On the ground, Iowa State has allowed 1,558 rushing yards (about 173 per game) and conceded 11 touchdowns over the course of the season. With 169 points surrendered in total, they remain one of the more formidable units in college football.
Iowa State’s offense has been solid. It is ranked in the top 50 in the nation with an average of 31.7 points and over 435 yards per game.
Offensively, Iowa State finds rhythm in Rocco Becht, who has thrown for 2,394 yards and 16 touchdowns. Carson Hansen anchors the rushing attack with 492 yards and eight touchdowns, while Jaylin Noel leads the receiving corps with 892 yards and five touchdowns. Jayden Higgins has been a steady contributor as well, adding 791 yards and seven scores.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, enters averaging 28.6 points per game. Its solid ground game ranks 55th nationally at 170.6 rushing yards per outing. They’ve amassed 3,947 total yards and balanced their scoring with 16 passing touchdowns and 15 on the ground.
Iowa State started the season strong but has recently faltered. Yet, back at home, the Cyclones look poised to find their footing once more. With a resilient defense and reliable offense, expect Iowa State to claim the win and cover this week, aiming to steer their season back on track.
Prediction: Iowa State 34, Cincinnati 23
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