CFB Analyst Reveals What’s Holding James Franklin’s Penn State Back From a National Championship

Under the stewardship of head coach James Franklin, Penn State football has remained a formidable presence in the Big Ten Conference. With a strong running game, a reliable offensive line, and talented backs, the Nittany Lions have all the ingredients for success.

But despite those strengths, the team still hasn’t secured a national championship. That’s left fans and analysts asking the same question: What’s missing? A recent analysis by college football expert Smoke Dixon points to one major issue — quarterback Drew Allar’s ability to deliver in big moments.

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Penn State’s Dominant Run Game Masks Deeper Issues

Penn State’s offense has long been anchored by a powerful running attack. The offensive line, often rated among the best in the country, creates lanes for running backs like Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Both have consistently produced, keeping defenses off balance.

According to recent ESPN stats, Penn State ranked in the top 10 nationally in rushing yards per game during the 2024 season, which speaks to the unit’s effectiveness.

That success stems from both individual talent and a well-schemed system under offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. The Nittany Lions can control the clock and wear down opponents with long, steady drives. But as Dixon points out, that heavy run-first identity can turn into a liability in tight games.

Drew Allar Under the Spotlight as Penn State Nittany Lions Eye Playoff Push

While the ground game remains a major strength, Penn State’s national title hopes rely on more than just that. Dixon raised a key concern: Allar has to take the next step when the pressure’s on.

Allar, a junior entering his third year as the starter, has flashed potential. But he hasn’t proven he can lead a comeback when it counts.

“At some point, they have to be able to say ‘We’re down by 12 points, two touchdowns, Drew,'” Dixson said on 247 Sports’ “Ultimate College Football Show.”

“‘We got to go to a straight passing attack and you have to go down there. We have three drives, you have to score two, and the last one we have to go four-minute offense and kill the clock, the game’s on your shoulders, can you get that done?’”

That’s the crux of it. The run game can carry them for most of the season, but in high-stakes playoff moments, they’ll need Allar to step up through the air.

Allar’s growth has been steady. As a freshman in 2023, he threw for 2,631 yards, 25 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. In 2024, he improved to 3,327 yards, 24 touchdowns, and eight picks. But the question lingers — can he raise his game when it matters most?

The 2024 season exposed both his talent and his limitations. In high-profile matchups, like the Big Ten title loss to Oregon, Allar’s efficiency dipped when defenses forced him to throw.

Why Complementary Football Could Make or Break Penn State

Dixon’s emphasis on “complementary football” hits a nerve. Penn State doesn’t just need Allar to play well — they need balance. The offense has used play-action effectively, leaning on the run threat to open up passing windows. But when defenses know the run is coming, that advantage disappears.

Allar completed 66.5 percent of his play-action passes for an average of 8.4 yards per attempt. That’s solid. But the staff dialed those calls back in tight games, hinting at shaky confidence in the passing attack.

The question isn’t just whether Allar can step up. It’s whether the whole team — coaches included — can adapt. A national title is within reach. But closing that gap between potential and performance starts with trust in the quarterback and a more flexible offense.

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