Two teams with vastly different seasons square off under the midweek lights as the Central Michigan Chippewas head to Ohio to face the Toledo Rockets in Tuesday night MACtion.
Who takes the win? Our Central Michigan vs. Toledo prediction covers everything you need to know—from the latest betting lines to each team’s prospects for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Central Michigan vs. Toledo Betting Preview
All Central Michigan vs. Toledo odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Toledo -5 - Spread
Toledo -15 - Moneyline
Toledo -625, Central Michigan +455 - Over/Under
52 points - Game time
7 p.m. ET - Location
Glass Bowl | Toledo, OH - Predicted Weather at Kick
36 degrees, clear, 7 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPNU
Tuesday night marks the 53rd installment of the Central Michigan vs. Toledo rivalry. The Rockets, after dominating the early 2010s, lead the all-time series 29-20-3 heading into this Week 12 showdown. Under Jason Candle, Toledo has claimed victory in three of the last four meetings and enters this matchup as a heavy favorite per the latest DraftKings Sportsbook odds.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Toledo has been inconsistent as the favorite this season, posting a 4-3 record overall and a shaky 2-5 ATS when backed by the oddsmakers. Interestingly, the sizable gap between the DraftKings spread (-17) and CFN FPM spread (-5) could hint at another upset against the spread. Central Michigan, though 3-6 ATS this year, has shown the ability to punch above its weight, frustrating Bowling Green as a double-digit underdog earlier this season.
Central Michigan’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Central Michigan has a 32.3% chance of beating Toledo on Tuesday night. This same metric accurately projected their Week 2 loss to the FIU Panthers, even when oddsmakers favored the Chippewas. On the flip side, the CFN FPM labeled them as underdogs in their surprising win over San Diego State.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Central Michigan in the 2024 season:
- at Toledo: 32.3%
- vs. Western Michigan: 33.1%
- at Northern Illinois: 28.4%
If these projections hold, Central Michigan would finish the year with a 3-9 overall record, including a 1-7 mark in MAC play. That would mark the program’s worst season since 2018, which ended John Bonamego’s tenure as head coach. A similar outcome could spell trouble for Jim McElwain’s future with the Chippewas.
Toledo’s Winning Probability
On the other side, Toledo holds a 63.6% chance of defeating Central Michigan on Tuesday night. The Rockets have been tough to pin down this season, dropping games the CFN FPM expected them to win while pulling off victories in matchups where they were projected to lose. That said, our metric’s spread aligned much closer to the outcome of their most recent game compared to the oddsmakers’ line.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Toledo in the 2024 season:
- vs. Central Michigan: 63.6%
- vs. Ohio: 50.6%
- at Akron: 61.1%
If these probabilities play out, Toledo would finish the season at 9-3 overall with a 6-2 conference record. In a wide-open race for Detroit, that could be enough to clinch a MAC Championship Game berth. However, they’re currently on the outside looking in, and their Week 13 matchup against Ohio looms as a pivotal, near-coin-flip game.
Prediction for Central Michigan vs. Toledo
This Tuesday night MACtion clash is a must-win for both teams, though for entirely different reasons. For Central Michigan, a loss means yet another year without bowl eligibility. The Chippewas haven’t appeared in a postseason game in the last two seasons, and a third straight year below .500 would mark their longest bowl drought since the Brian Kelly era began after Mike DeBord.
On the other side, Toledo already has their bowl eligibility locked up. But the Rockets have their sights set on the MAC Championship Game, and a loss here would likely derail those hopes. So, who has the edge in this matchup, and where will the game be decided?
This one feels like it should be straightforward to call. Toledo boasts a deeper roster, a respected coaching staff with a track record of success, and the added advantage of playing at home. The Rockets haven’t lost to Central Michigan in the Glass Bowl since 2008, and they’ve outperformed the Chippewas this season on both sides of the ball, scoring more points per game and allowing fewer.
That said, we’ve already seen that Central Michigan can be a tough out for favored teams. In Week 11, the Chippewas gave Bowling Green fits, trailing by just two points at halftime despite entering the game as 16-point underdogs. Defensively, they’re anchored by impact players like Jordan Kwiatkowski, who can disrupt an offense’s rhythm and create chaos.
The Chippewas also have explosive playmakers on offense. Marion Lukes and Myles Bailey are threats to break big plays out of the backfield, capable of punishing even stout defenses. However, Toledo’s defense, led by hard-hitting linebacker Daniel Bolden and standout safety Maxen Hook—one of the best in the Group of Five—should be able to assert control.
Offensively, Toledo hasn’t been quite as dynamic since DeQuan Finn transferred to Baylor. But Tucker Gleason has plenty of weapons in Jerjuan Newton and Junior Vandeross III to take advantage of Central Michigan’s defensive vulnerabilities. The Rockets should be able to keep their dream of a third straight MAC title game appearance alive for at least another week.
Prediction: Central Michigan 21, Toledo 30
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