Both Army and Navy are 4-0 for the first time since 1945 and while the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy is important, the Midshipmen from Navy might have other goals this season. In a wide-open American Athletic Conference, Navy controls its own destiny.
Can the Midshipmen challenge for the AAC Championship?
Projecting Navy’s Remaining Schedule
Using College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM), we can project Navy’s remaining schedule. The Midshipmen will be favored in most of their remaining games, and if they continue their hot play, led by quarterback Blake Horvath, they’ll have an outside chance to make the College Football Playoff.
Navy (-3.5) @ Air Force (Projection: W)
Always an entertaining game, Navy goes out west to face the Air Force Falcons on October 5. FPM gives the Midshipmen a 60.6% chance to win as 3.5-point favorites.
While Air Force is once again well-coached, the Falcons are really lacking in playmaking talent. A veteran team in 2023, they were decimated by graduation and as a service academy, they were unable to do anything in the transfer portal to replace some of the losses.
Navy’s offense should also find some room here. Service academy games are typically extremely low-scoring, but Navy has a quarterback who can stretch a defense with his arm,
Navy (-8) vs. Charlotte (Projection: W)
Charlotte has struggled at the start of the 2024 season. I thought Biff Poggi might be the 49ers’ saving grace, but it’s more of the same for one of the worst teams in the FBS.
Navy should be able to handle this one, with a 6-0 start likely here. FPM makes the Midshipmen 8-point favorites, with a 73.8% chance of winning.
The Midshipmen will look to do more of what they’ve done all year here: Play solid defense, control the clock, and hit shot plays down the field when the opportunities present themselves.
Navy (+12.75) vs. Notre Dame (Projection: L)
While this is one of Navy’s projected losses, it would not be devastating in the AAC title race. Notre Dame has looked beatable this season (especially when Northern Illinois shocked the Irish).
The Fighting Irish are close to 13-point favorites with a nearly 84% chance of beating Navy. Those numbers could change a bit based on the results of this and next weekend’s games, but the Midshipmen are likely large underdogs.
However, it’s out of conference, and if Navy is undefeated heading into the October 26 showdown, the Midshipmen would remain in first in the AAC, even with a loss.
Navy (-5.25) @ Rice (Projection: W)
The FPM probably isn’t low enough on Rice, as the Owls have been abysmal in 2024. Still, the Midshipmen are favorites of over five points right now, and that’s likely to grow, given Saturday’s results.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
FPM gives the Midshipmen a 64.6% chance to win, even on the road, indicating that Navy will continue its run at an AAC title into November.
Navy (+1.75) @ USF (Projection: L)
Here’s one of the more interesting games left on the schedule. Navy plays South Florida on the road just north of Tampa, but the Bulls haven’t been overly impressive, aside from two close halves against top-10 teams.
The Bulls got crushed by Tulane on Saturday and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Midshipmen as favorites in this one as early as later this week.
Currently, the Midshipmen are just under two-point underdogs, and given that the home team in our model gets about two points, FPM sees these teams as near-equals.
Navy has a 47.4% chance to win this one, per FPM, but if the Midshipmen are undefeated in conference, expect the numbers to flip. Navy has the offensive firepower to push a questionable USF defense.
Navy (+3.25) vs. Tulane (Projection: L)
Tulane looks extremely strong this year, especially as redshirt freshman quarterback Darian Mensah continues to mature.
After two close games against ranked Oklahoma and Kansas State teams, Tulane has come out and beaten two decent football teams in South Florida and Louisiana, looking fantastic in the process. The Green Wave might be the favorites to win the AAC as of today, but like they dispatched Memphis, the Midshipmen will have an opportunity to beat Tulane.
Don’t be surprised if this has postseason implications when the time comes.
Navy (-8.25) @ ECU (Projection: W)
East Carolina is a very weird team this year. The defense is far ahead of what it was supposed to be, but the offense has struggled to put together four quarters of solid football. The Pirates have recently lost games to App State and Liberty that they’ve been in position to win.
Don’t be surprised if this East Carolina team is completely different in a month and a half than it is now, and I don’t necessarily agree with FPM’s 74.2% win probability.
That being said, this is the AAC finale for the Midshipmen, and if a conference championship berth is on the line, Navy will be ready.
Navy (-3.25) vs. Army (Projection: W)
Okay, bear with me here. I’m aware Navy and Army are in the same conference now, but this is not a conference game.
That doesn’t matter, as this is shaping up to be one of the best Army-Navy games in recent memory. Both teams have talented dual-threat quarterbacks and wide receiver talent for the first time in an extremely long time.
When there’s nothing on the line, this is a big game. This season, when there’s an outside shot of one of these teams making a high-ranking bowl game or even the College Football Playoff, it will be enormous.
These games are almost always low-scoring, but the faith each coach has in his offense could make this one of the only Army-Navy shootouts, with the Midshipmen having a 58.9% chance to win.
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