The BYU Cougars have had an incredible season up until now, and their current ranking as the No. 11 team in the nation in the latest College Football Playoff (CFP) committee is the best proof of it. However, an important dent to their aspirations came a few weeks ago, when they lost an important game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Since then, their participation in the CFP has been put into question despite their immaculate 9-1 record. The Cougars suffer from being in the Big 12, possibly the weakest Power Five conference, and from not having won a single encounter against a Top 25 team this season (Utah).
To understand BYU’s odds of qualifying for the CFP, we have to first know how many at-large bids there will be at the end of the day. The top five-ranked conference champions will automatically qualify, and the top four-ranked teams will automatically go into the quarterfinal round. That means that the top four-ranked teams in the CFP committee rankings will likely get in automatically.
The question here is, how many teams outside the top 12 will qualify as conference champions? The more there are, the more unlikely BYU will get in. At the moment, it seems there will be seven at-large spots, and if we assume Indiana, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech will win their conferences, Ohio State, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oregon, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Alabama will get in as at-large bids, leaving BYU just one spot shy of the CFP.
However, if the Cougars win their remaining two games and Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Alabama falter, they could go up into qualifying spots.
In this scenario, Miami and Tulane would be the two remaining teams qualifying as champions of the ACC and the American.
As a refresher, here are the latest CFP Top 25 rankings.
- Ohio State: 10-0
- Indiana: 11-0
- Texas A&M: 10-0
- Georgia: 9-1
- Texas Tech: 10-1
- Ole Miss: 10-1
- Oregon: 9-1
- Oklahoma: 8-2
- Notre Dame: 8-2
- Alabama: 8-2
- BYU: 9-1 (first team out)
- Utah: 8-2
- Miami (Fla.): 8-2 (fourth-highest-ranked conference champion)
- Vanderbilt: 8-2
- USC: 8-2
- Georgia Tech: 9-1
- Texas: 7-3
- Michigan: 8-2
- Virginia: 9-2
- Tennessee: 7-3
- Illinois: 7-3
- Missouri: 7-3
- Houston: 8-2
- Tulane: 8-2 (fifth-highest-ranked conference champion)
- Arizona State: 7-3
What’s the best path for BYU to qualify for the CFP?
There’s one obvious way for the BYU Cougars to sneak onto the CFP: Win the Big 12. This is an absolute possibility for them, as they’re currently second in the conference’s standings and they have a head-to-head victory over their closest pursuer, the Utah Utes. In this scenario, it would be Alabama who would be left out.
This is the surest way for the Big 12 school to qualify, as leaving it up to Alabama, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame to falter brings in other perils. USC, Michigan, and Oregon can still win the Big Ten, and Alabama or Ole Miss could win the SEC. Any number of combinations of those scenarios could alter the calculation as well.
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