There’s a scenario where ACC will have no representation in the College Football Playoff as we head into the conference championship week. The new 12-team CFP format is creating a “doomsday scenario” for Miami.
How ACC Got Into This Mess?
The Miami Hurricanes appeared to be early favorites to be ACC’s representation in the College Football Playoff. While they are tied with Virginia with the best 10-2 overall record in the conference, the Canes are 6-2 in the conference and thus won’t feature in the ACC Championship game that will now take place between Virginia and Duke.
Miami is ranked No. 12 in the AP Polls; thus, they are not in line to qualify through at-large spots. Now that leaves ACC representation to either Virginia and Duke because the CFP only has guaranteed spots for the best 5 conference champions.
But both Virginia and Duke have worse overall records than AAC’s North Texas (11-1) and SBC East’s James Madison (11-1).
What Would Need To Happen For ACC Representation In College Football Playoff
There are two scenarios, but the likelihood is very slim and requires several things to go in favor of ACC representation.
Scenario 1: ACC Gets One Team Into the CFP
First things first, Virginia needs to beat Duke in the ACC championship to keep the conference’s prestige alive. If they do so, the Cavaliers finish with a 12-1 record and could be favored by the committee to secure the five automatic CFP bids given to the highest-ranked conference champions.
Scenario 2: ACC Gets Two Teams Into the CFP
The likelihood of the same is very rare, but for this to happen, Virginia needs to win the championship game and Miami needs to finish inside the top seven-ranked team in the committee’s final rankings.
Scenario 3: ACC Gets Zero Teams Into the CFP
The probability of this scenario is very high. For this to happen, Duke must beat Virginia in the championship game. If that happens, Duke, a five-loss ranked team, will be ranked below the champions from other conferences, including SEC Champ, Big Ten Champ, Big 12 Champ, Pac-12 Champ and the Highest Group of Five champ (e.g., James Madison or North Texas)
It remains to be seen what happens by the end of the week.
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