The California Golden Bears are not only chasing their first ACC win of 2024 but are also gearing up to face the Wake Forest Demon Deacons for the first time in Week 11. With both teams sitting at 4-4 and only four games left in the season, the stakes for bowl eligibility couldn’t be higher.
Our California vs. Wake Forest prediction dives into the matchup, providing essential betting insights to help you make informed wagers.
California vs. Wake Forest Betting Preview
All California vs. Wake Forest odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
California -6 - Spread
California -7 - Moneyline
Cal -270, Wake Forest +220 - Over/Under
54.5 points - Game Time
8 p.m. ET, Friday, Nov. 8 - Location
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium | Winston-Salem, N.C. - Predicted Weather at Kick
63 degrees, 3 mph winds, clear with periodic clouds - How To Watch
ACC Network
All signs point to the under cashing in this one, as it has hit in eight of Cal’s last 11 games, including five straight road games, and six of Wake Forest’s last seven Friday matchups.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Spread trends are similarly one-sided, with the Bears going 5-2 ATS in the previous seven matchups while the Demon Deacons are 0-6-1 in their past seven home bouts.
California’s Winning Probability
The Bears are 0-4 in their first year in the ACC, but the FPM believes they’ll notch their first conference win in Week 11. If they do, they’ll be one more victory away from bowl contention, and with Stanford still on the schedule, it’s all but guaranteed.
- at Wake Forest: 65.7%
- vs. Syracuse: 55.6%
- vs. Stanford: 80.2%
- at SMU: 24.5%
Wake Forest’s Winning Probability
The ‘Deacs are also two wins away from bowling, but their path is far more difficult. They aren’t favored to leave any of their remaining four games victorious, with their highest win probability sitting just above 40%.
- vs. California: 34.3%
- at North Carolina: 41.1%
- at Miami-FL: 5.2%
- vs. Duke: 36.9%
Prediction for California vs. Wake Forest
Three of Wake Forest’s ACC games have come down to the wire, with a 31-30 loss to Virginia, a 34-30 win over NC State, and a 27-24 victory against Stanford. The only lopsided result was a 49-14 blowout loss to Clemson.
Cal’s conference matchups have been just as competitive, averaging a score of 23.5 to 21.3. With both teams showing a tendency for tight, low-scoring games, the under feels like the best play here, especially when you dig into the matchup numbers.
Wake Forest ranks in the top 25 for both explosive rush and pass rates, while their front seven is poised to cause chaos against a Cal offensive line that’s struggled all season, ranking 128th in tackles for loss allowed per game (7.62).
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Cal QB Fernando Mendoza has led an offense that cracks the top 50 in expected points added (EPA) per pass, but the team’s ground game (118.8 yards per game, 3.39 yards per attempt) and pass protection (3.38 sacks allowed per game) have consistently held them back.
The Bears have the talent to win, but this game sets up as a grind, featuring long, methodical drives that should keep the score low. Wake Forest’s balanced but unspectacular offense (43rd in success rate) is well-positioned to cover the touchdown spread.
Prediction: California 24, Wake Forest 20
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.