The California Bears and UNLV Rebels first crossed paths not too long ago, with the Bears edging out a 20-14 victory early in the 2022 season. Fast forward, and both programs are navigating some turbulence following otherwise impressive campaigns.
So, who takes the edge this time? Our California vs. UNLV prediction dives into everything you need to know — from the latest betting odds to what’s on the line for both teams as they clash in the Art of Sport LA Bowl.
California vs. UNLV LA Bowl Betting Preview
All California vs. UNLV odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UNLV -4.5 - Spread
UNLV -3.5 - Moneyline
UNLV -162, Cal +136 - Over/Under
46 points - Game Time
9:00 p.m. ET, Wednesday, Dec. 18 - Location
SoFi Stadium | Inglewood, Calif. - Predicted Weather at Kick
66 degrees, 2 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
ESPN
The Bears ended the season with a 2-4 against-the-spread record in their last six games. Meanwhile, UNLV enters the LA Bowl 10-3 ATS in its past 13 games as an underdog.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
But what about the total? There are two parallel trends to know:
- The under has hit in 10 of Cal’s last 15 games.
- The under has hit in four of UNLV’s last six.
California’s Winning Probability
Year 8 of the Justin Wilcox era was more of the same, with the Bears finishing the regular season at 6-6. However, it was their ACC debut, which earned the program a few more brownie points. But can they win their first bowl game since 2019? The FPM doesn’t like their odds.
- at UNLV: 36.9%
UNLV’s Winning Probability
After the two most successful seasons in school history, head coach Barry Odom has departed for the same role with the Purdue Boilermakers. It also appears as though offensive coordinator Brennan Marion is on his way out, reportedly agreeing to become the next head coach at Sacramento State.
Can the Rebels still pull off the “Group of Five over Power Four” victory?
- vs. California: 63.1%
Prediction for California vs. UNLV
The LA Bowl offers a fascinating matchup between two programs navigating transitional phases. UNLV enters the postseason on the heels of a historic year, coming heartbreakingly close to the College Football Playoff before falling in the Mountain West Championship.
Now, the Rebels face a shift at head coach, with Dan Mullen stepping in for Barry Odom. Despite the uncertainty, UNLV retains a talented core, led by dynamic quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams. His dual-threat skill set will pose a significant challenge for Cal’s defense.
On the other side, Cal is looking to end its first ACC season on a high note with a winning record. The Bears lean heavily on a strong turnover margin and a defense designed to wear opponents down, particularly on critical third-down situations.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
However, Cal will be without quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who entered the transfer portal. To make matters worse, the offense has struggled in pass protection, ranking near the bottom nationally in sacks allowed. That weakness could be a recipe for disaster against a UNLV defensive front that ranks in the top 20 in sacks.
While UNLV’s coaching situation is a question mark, their edge in talent and explosive playmakers should tip the scales in their favor. The Rebels have what it takes to come out on top.
- EPA margin: UNLV 43rd; Cal 62nd
- Offensive success rate: UNLV 43rd; Cal 93rd
- Net points per drive: UNLV 33rd; Cal 90th
Prediction: UNLV 27, California 20
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