The SMU Mustangs have already punched their ticket to the ACC Championship Game, but they’ll face a sharp and efficient California Golden Bears squad in the final week of the regular season. SMU will aim to make a statement to the College Football Playoff Selection Committee, proving they deserve a playoff spot no matter what happens in the title game.
Can Cal turn this into a nail-biter and leave Mustangs fans on edge? Our California vs. SMU prediction dives into the latest odds and picks for this pivotal ACC showdown.
California vs. SMU Betting Preview
All California vs. SMU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
SMU -11.5 - Spread
SMU -11 - Moneyline
SMU -455, Cal +350 - Over/Under
55.5 - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 30, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Gerald J. Ford Stadium | University Park, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, mostly sunny, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN2
Cal and SMU clash for the second time in history in their first years in the ACC. The Mustangs won the first meeting 13-6 in Berkeley, Calif., in 1957 and enter their second matchup against the Golden Bears as heavy favorites.
Rhett Lashlee’s team is a 13-point favorite to win its regular-season finale, with the CFN FPM slightly lower at -11.75. Cal hasn’t beaten a top-10-ranked team on the road since 1969, leaving bettors expecting SMU to prevail.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
However, Cal hasn’t lost a game by more than 10 points all season. The Bears have covered the spread in three of four road games in 2024, while both teams have been prolific in hitting the over.
The over has been met in five of SMU’s six home games this season, with games involving Cal having gone over in three of their last five matchups.
California’s Winning Probability
The Bears are coming off an emotional rivalry game win over Stanford, which saw them become bowl-eligible for the third time under Justin Wilcox. However, the CFN FPM gives Cal little hope of repeating last week’s heroics. The metric gives them a slim 18.9% chance of victory on the road in Texas.
at SMU: 18.9%
SMU’s Winning Probability
SMU is one of the most in-form teams in the country. They enter Week 14 having won eight straight games, earning a ninth-place ranking from the CFP. The Mustangs are rightly the unreserved favorites to win on Saturday afternoon, with the CFN FPM giving them an 81.1% chance of defeating Cal and finishing the year with 11+ wins for a second straight season.
vs. California: 81.1%
Prediction for California vs. SMU
SMU enters as the clear favorite against Cal, backed by an offense ranked seventh nationally in points per game (37.3) and known for its ability to deliver explosive plays at any moment.
Kevin Jennings has brought a new dynamic to the Mustangs’ passing attack since taking over for Preston Stone in Week 4, adding mobility that complements their aerial game. Meanwhile, Brashard Smith has spearheaded a potent ground attack, surpassing 1,000 rushing yards with 13 touchdowns on the season.
Defensively, SMU has been just as dominant under coordinator Scott Symons. The Mustangs rank 25th nationally, allowing just 57.33% of passes to be completed, and their run defense is elite, conceding a mere 2.9 yards per carry—good for sixth in the country.
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While SMU could run away with this one, Cal has the tools to keep it closer than the spread suggests. The Golden Bears, sitting at 6-5, have been competitive all season, with narrow October losses to Miami, Pittsburgh, and NC State decided by a combined four points.
Cal’s quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been a steady presence, throwing for over 3,000 yards with 16 touchdowns and only six interceptions in 2024. He protects the ball well, but for Cal to stay in this game, their defense must rise to the occasion. Ranked 27th in points allowed per game (21.5) and 19th in points per play (0.302), the Golden Bears boast one of the toughest defenses SMU will face this year.
This won’t be a walkover for SMU, but with so much at stake, don’t expect the Mustangs to ease up. That’s not how head coach Rhett Lashlee has built or coached this team.
SMU will aim to cap off the regular season on a high note as they gear up for the ACC Championship Game—and quite possibly, the playoffs.
Prediction: SMU 35, Cal 23
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