Picture this scene: The scrappy, 27-point underdogs drop back to throw a potential game-winning Hail Mary. There’s a man in the end zone; he reaches up and catches it. But at the very last minute, the replay booth rules that he failed to maintain control through the catch, and the favorite survives.
That’s what the recruitment of elite quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele felt like, as the five-star looked to be headed to play for the California Golden Bears before the Oregon Ducks secured a flip on Early Signing Day.
Sagapolutele was Cal’s Hail Mary, and it just fell incomplete. Is it time to sound the alarm on Justin Wilcox’s tenure, or will the Bears recover?
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele Flips Commitment From Cal to Oregon
Sagapolutele is an elite talent. With a live arm and quick release, he’s ranked fifth on our top 2025 quarterbacks list. He was also more than just the gem of Wilcox’s Cal Bears recruiting class. He was the diamond in a sea of quartz.
Sagapolutele was a late bloomer and a fantastic early scouting job by the Bears. They played the long game, evaluating him over multiple years and pulling the trigger with an offer in early June. They ratcheted up their interest and secured his commitment in early July over teams like Boise State and Oregon State.
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Then, on Sept. 26, Oregon offered, and he’s officially headed to Eugene. Sure, it’s a significant win for the Ducks. But more than that, it’s a brutal blow to the Bears — one that could mark the end of the Wilcox era.
What makes it worse is that while this was expected at times throughout the final stages of his recruitment, the latest intel as recently as Tuesday suggested Sagapolutele would stick with his original commitment.
But I put him on flip watch because, in these David vs. Goliath battles, the Blue Bloods usually win.
What Losing Sagapolutele Means for the Golden Bears
Sagapolutele’s flip is a devastating blow to the Bears, one that could signal the end of Wilcox’s tenure. The remaining recruiting class is neither profound nor top-heavy. Sagapolutele was the only blue-chip prospect in a 14-player class before his de-commitment.
The Bears will sign 13 three-star prospects, with only four players ranking inside the top 1,000 prospects in On3’s industry rankings. The class is currently the fourth-worst in the Power Four, and few players look like they’ll have an immediate impact.
Sagapolutele could have had an immediate impact on the Bears. He had the talent to push starter Fernando Mendoza and then take over after Mendoza left.
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Sagapolutele could potentially do the same at Oregon. There’s stiffer competition, as the Ducks have Dante Moore with three years of remaining eligibility and have taken several transfers in the last half-decade.
However, this is an example of the rich getting richer at the expense of the poor. Wilcox’s back is against the wall after a few poor recruiting classes. He threw a Hail Mary and nearly scored with Sagapolutele, but instead, the Bears are left to pick up the pieces.
They’ll have one more chance in the transfer portal. A swing and a miss there, and Wilcox’s fate may be sealed.
If Cal had locked down such a talented passer, the narrative would be different. But they failed, and fair or not, we’re left to wonder if that’s the nail in the coffin.
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