Never fear, BYU Cougars fans, the dream season is still alive. Sure, the undefeated portion is over, but that doesn’t mean postseason dreams have been dashed. If anything, they’ve stayed exactly where they were, at least for the Big 12 Championship Game odds.
Let me explain.
BYU’s Big 12 Championship Chances
Entering Week 12, BYU had a 46.04% chance to win the Big 12. They had a 92.16% chance to make the College Football Playoffs. Yes, the playoff odds will take a hit (see below for those), but the chances to make the Big 12 title game — at least we didn’t think — weren’t set to be affected too much one way or another from the Kansas game.
Following their loss to Kansas, however, their chances to win the Big 12 did take a large hit.
Though they had a 46.04% chance to make the title, they held over a 40% chance to win the game against Colorado, as was projected. But the loss to Kansas has moved BYU’s chances to win the Big 12 Championship Game to just 29.83%.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
But back to the don’t fret part.
That’s because BYU still controls their destiny and can make the Big 12 Championship Game by winning out. In fact, there’s a tiebreaker scenario that even means the Cougars can make the Big 12 Championship Game with a potential loss down the stretch in one of their final two games.
Let’s get to that.
How Can BYU Make the Big 12 Championship Game?
The simple part about how BYU can make the Big 12 Championship Game is just this: Win the final two games and they’re in. Who they’ll play is a different story, but if they win their final two, they’re in.
So if it’s as simple as ‘win and they’re in,’ what happens if BYU were to drop another game down the stretch of the season?
Looking at their opponents, it’s possible they could drop the game at Arizona State in Week 13 as a possibility. But the road map is really simple for BYU, win that one and they’ve all but clinched due to knocking Arizona State out of contention.
If you had to pin one of BYU’s remaining games as the most important, it’s the Arizona State game away from LES that takes priority. Every game is important for BYU, but winning the next one up is the most important.
Current Big 12 Standings
- BYU Cougars: 6-1 (9-1 overall)
- Colorado Buffaloes: 6-1 (8-2)
- Arizona State Sun Devils: 5-2 (8-2)
- Iowa State Cyclones: 5-2 (8-2)
- Baylor Bears: 4-3 (6-4)
- Kansas State Wildcats: 4-3 (7-3)
- TCU Horned Frogs: 4-3 (6-4)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders: 4-3 (6-4)
- West Virginia Mountaineers: 4-3 (5-5)
- Cincinnati Bearcats: 3-4 (5-5)
- Houston Cougars: 3-4 (4-6)
- Kansas Jayhawks: 3-4 (4-6)
- UCF Knights: 2-5 (4-6)
- Arizona Wildcats: 2-5 (4-6)
- Utah Utes: 1-6 (4-6)
- Oklahoma State Cowboys: 0-7 (3-7)
Latest BYU Playoff Probability Following Week 12
So BYU was a near lock to make the Playoffs as they were undefeated. However, following a loss, it’s important to see where the committee ranks the Cougars in the next iteration of the College Football Playoff Rankings.
They already weren’t too high on the Big 12 in general, but now with it looking like there will be at most one Big 12 team with just a single loss, it’s more likely that only one Big 12 team makes the playoffs.
For BYU, it’s win the Big 12 to guarantee their spot in the playoffs. As such, their playoff probability went down to 60.28% to make the postseason. That’s from over 90% last week.
It’ll be imperative for BYU to return to the win column in Week 13.
Cougars’ Remaining Schedule
Using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, we take a look at the remaining games for the Cougars, but with our projected winning probability attached. These are subject to change based on the final data inputs from the weekend.
- @ Arizona State 64.7%
- vs. Houston 91.1%
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