Just four weeks ago, Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois seemed like a borderline meaningless game to the broader college football community, but Pete Lembo has the Bulls way ahead of rebuilding schedule while Thomas Hammock gave the Huskies a cult following after beating Notre Dame.
Suddenly, this MAC opener has real meaning for both teams as the Bulls have hopes of a bowl berth in Year 0, and Northern Illinois has an outside shot at the College Football Playoff.
Can the Bulls play spoiler and further cement Lembo as the right man for the job, or will the Huskies defend home turf and add to their postseason résumé? Before you bet, consult our thoughts on the spread, total, and Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois prediction.
Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois Betting Preview
All Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Sept. 17.
- Spread
Northern Illinois -14 - Moneyline
Northern Illinois -550/Buffalo +410 - Over/Under
43.5 points - Game time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Huskie Stadium | DeKalb, Ill. - Predicted Weather at Kick
83 degrees, Cloudy - How To Watch
ESPN+
The spread for this game has dropped slightly since opening at Northern Illinois -14.5. Fourteen is an important number, and after falling immediately upon release, the spread has stayed the same since. Similarly, the total has ticked down from 44.5 to its current spot at 43.5
Right now, this has an implied final score of 29-15 or so in favor of Northern Illinois, a nod to the strength of the Huskies’ defense that has allowed just 14.5 points per game through two weeks.
Prediction for Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois’ status as a Group of Five elite is very new. The Huskies have a strong team, but the win over Notre Dame really put them on the map. Accordingly, we don’t have a ton of data points, as an easy FCS win and the Notre Dame upset are all we have to go by.
I’m not fully sold on the Huskies, who I had as a middle-of-the-MAC team in the preseason. Sure, they looked great, but a lot had to go right for the Huskies to pull off the upset over the Irish, including poor quarterback play and two missed field goals from typically reliable Notre Dame players.
On the other hand, this was supposed to be Year 0 for the Bulls after a mass exodus in the transfer portal following Maurice Linguist’s resignation. But Pete Lembo has the Bulls playing great ball, despite a road shutout to top-10 Missouri.
Both of these teams have outplayed the spread by an average of double digits, and both have similar DNAs.
Northern Illinois wants to be efficient in the passing game and be stubborn in the run. Buffalo wants to control the tempo and lean on its defense. Through three weeks, the Bulls’ defense has been fantastic, capped by an otherworldly performance against UMass in which the Minutemen were held under three yards per play.
Here’s the thing: I think Buffalo can limit Northern Illinois’ big plays and make the Huskies drive the field. The Huskies will have to take some shots, giving linebacker Shaun Dolac and corner Marquis Cooper the chance to make plays. Those two have been incredible all season and could make the difference in a tight game.
Northern Illinois will need to be patient, as it was against Notre Dame. If the Huskies are willing to stick with the run, they can choke this game away because Buffalo doesn’t have the offensive firepower to stay with them.
Either way, I think this stays under the total. These are two defense-first, grinding teams who play at a slower pace and are OK with driving the length of the field.
The X-factor here is Lembo’s special teams prowess. Northern Illinois dominated Notre Dame in the special teams department, but that won’t happen Saturday.
If Buffalo can get any sort of explosiveness from its offense, the Bulls will not be an easy out.
In fact, I’ll call the upset here, as the Bulls will get a huge special teams play to put them ahead late. It might be a good, old-fashioned rock fight, but Lembo can get a signiture win to continue his strong start to his Buffalo tenure.
Prediction: Buffalo 20, Northern Illinois 17
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