One of the season’s most intriguing bowl games got bumped from the front to the back of the schedule this year. The Buffalo Bulls didn’t waste time, already heading overseas to soak up some sun and sand ahead of the Bahamas Bowl.
But can Pete Lembo’s squad take down a Liberty Flames team navigating uncertainty under Jamey Chadwell? Here’s our take in this Buffalo vs. Liberty prediction.
Buffalo vs. Liberty Bahamas Bowl Betting Preview
All Buffalo vs. Liberty odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Jan. 4, 2025. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Buffalo -2 - Spread
Buffalo -4.5 - Moneyline
Buffalo -198, Liberty +164 - Over/Under
50.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Jan. 4, 11 a.m. ET - Location
Thomas Robinson Stadium | Nassau, Bahamas - How To Watch
ESPN2
One of these teams is severely hindered by opt-outs and the transfer portal, while the other is at full strength.
As seems to be the case with many teams this bowl season, the hits for Liberty are mostly at one position group. The Flames will be down their top three offensive linemen, while quarterback Kaidon Salter has transferred to the Colorado Buffaloes and, thus, will also miss the game.
This line has been close from the start, but bettors reacted to the news of Liberty’s opt-outs by flocking to the Bulls. The line started at Buffalo +2 and has moved to Buffalo -1.5 in a near pick ’em. The total has remained at 52, though a few sportsbooks list it at 51.5.
Buffalo’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM, like Vegas, gives Buffalo a slight edge, making them a one-point favorite in what looks like a true toss-up. That translates to a slim winning probability for the Bulls.
- vs. Liberty: 52.8%
Liberty’s Winning Probability
From the start, FPM has seen Liberty as a small underdog. The Flames carry a 47.2% chance of defeating the Bulls and securing their ninth win of the season.
- vs. Buffalo: 47.2%
Prediction for Buffalo vs. Liberty
Like FPM, I originally saw Buffalo as the slightly better team. But with Liberty’s roster essentially playing at half strength due to opt-outs, I feel even more confident in the Bulls.
Head coach Jamey Chadwell has hinted there could be more opt-outs on top of the five confirmed starters sitting out for Liberty. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s only absence is their sixth-leading receiver.
It’s not hard to tell which team wants to be here more.
That’s not to say the Bulls won’t have their own transfers after this game. Maybe those players wanted to enjoy a trip to the Bahamas first (and let’s face it, who wouldn’t prefer that over Buffalo in January?) or play one final game with their teammates in what has been a wildly successful first season under Maurice Lembo.
Either way, Liberty’s losses loom large. The sportsbooks have moved the line by 3.5 points, but I think it should be even more. Losing QB Kaidon Salter alone impacts the Flames significantly, and the absence of three offensive linemen—two of them all-conference selections—goes beyond just filling holes in the lineup.
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This is a textbook “bowl theory” game. One team is eager to push for a ninth win, while the other seems ready to head into the offseason. That motivation gap is worth more than a field goal, especially when Buffalo already had the edge at full strength.
Expect CFN All-American Shaun Dolac to shine in his last collegiate game. Liberty backup QB Ryan Burger brings some starting experience, but he lacks Salter’s mobility—a critical factor against a Buffalo defense likely to dominate the down-to-down battles.
Ultimately, I trust Lembo to cap this season on a high note. The Bulls have fully bought into his culture, and their excitement for a January 4 bowl game says it all.
In a matchup like this, that excitement matters. Take the Bulls as they stifle Liberty’s offense and secure the win.
Prediction: Buffalo 24, Liberty 12
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