Not only are the Ohio Bobcats 18-11 all-time against the Buffalo Bulls, but they have won the last two. Can they make it three in a row in Week 9?
Get the latest betting odds, in-depth spread analysis, and our top pick in this Buffalo vs. Ohio preview ahead of Saturday’s MACtion.
Buffalo vs. Ohio Betting Preview
All Buffalo vs. Ohio odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio -1.5 - Spread
Ohio -6 - Moneyline
Ohio -205, Buffalo +170 - Over/Under
44.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Saturday, Oct. 26 - Location
Peden Stadium | Athens, Ohio - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, 7 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
CBSSN
Outside of the total dropping by a couple of points, the Buffalo-Ohio lines have remained consistent since opening.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Ohio’s 1-4 against-the-spread record in their last five games should point to Buffalo ATS as the play, but the Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last five against the Bobcats.
If there were one bet to make based on trends alone, it would be the over, which has hit in four of Buffalo’s previous five contests and five of Ohio’s last six Week 9 matchups.
Buffalo’s Winning Probability
The FPM expects this to be a tight battle, giving the Bulls a 47.5% win probability. But from Week 10 on, Buffalo is favored by 60% or higher in three of its final four games, paving a clear path toward the conference championship.
- at Akron: 63.1%
- vs. Ball State: 61.1%
- at Eastern Michigan: 48.2%
- vs. Kent State: 77.4%
Ohio’s Winning Probability
The Bobcats have won nine games in each of the last two regular seasons. To reach that total in 2024, they’ll need to win out, beginning with their 52.5% win probability against Buffalo.
Outside of a matchup with conference favorite Toledo, the road to another nine-win campaign doesn’t appear all that difficult:
- at Kent State: 70.3%
- vs. Eastern Michigan: 52.8%
- at Toledo: 38.1%
- vs. Ball State: 61.1%
Prediction for Buffalo vs. Ohio
Although Ohio has won and covered against Buffalo in the last four games played in Athens, the streak ends in 2024.
Both squads are 2-1 in the MAC, but those records aren’t evenly weighed. The Bulls’ wins came against 4-3 Northern Illinois and 5-2 Toledo, while the Bobcats’ were over 1-6 Akron and 3-4 Central Michigan.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Ohio’s offense has leaned heavily on the ground game, averaging 194.7 rushing yards per game on 37.1 attempts, ranking 31st nationally in both categories. However, leading rusher Anthony Tyus III is out indefinitely with a lower-body injury, and Buffalo has the LBs (Shaun Dolac and Red Murdock) to stand tall up front.
Additionally, the Bulls, although far from explosive, have kept the ball in their hands, owning a +3 turnover margin compared to the Bobcats’ -9. Football is a game of matchups, and Buffalo is a tough draw for Ohio. Take the Bulls to win and cover in Week 9.
Prediction: Buffalo 27, Ohio 17
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