The greatest rivalry in the Mid-American Conference returns, with the Toledo Rockets and Bowling Green Falcons facing off in the Glass House on Saturday afternoon. With MAC title game permutations adding to an already ferocious rivalry, will the Rockets fire or the Falcons fly in the Battle of I-75?
Our Bowling Green vs. Toledo prediction breaks down everything you need to know, including the latest betting odds and each team’s chances of success for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
Bowling Green vs. Toledo Betting Preview
All Bowling Green vs. Toledo odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Bowling Green -1 - Spread
Toledo -2.5 - Moneyline
Toledo -135, Bowling Green +114 - Over/Under
49.5 points - Game time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Glass Bowl | Toledo, OH - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, mostly sunny, 8 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN+
Just 26 miles separates the campuses of Bowling Green and Toledo, and the all-time rivalry has been just as close. The Rockets take a 43-41-4 advantage into the 89th meeting and have been dominant over their local rival recently, winning 12 of the last 14. However, the Falcons won the last time they met in the Glass Bowl, setting the scene for the 2024 edition.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Toledo is a narrow moneyline favorite, which hasn’t always been the best pregame spot for them this season. Their two losses came as less than -400 moneyline favorites, and they failed to cover in both of those losses. That said, after covering in close-fought losses to Power Four opposition, Bowling Green has failed to cover in the last four and hasn’t won as an underdog in 2024.
Bowling Green’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Bowling Green has a 50.8% chance of winning this pivotal MAC matchup on Saturday. However, our metric favored the Falcons in two games this fall where they fell to defeat, and the closeness of the percentages here showcases how close this rivalry game could be in Week 9.
The remaining win probabilities for the rest of the Falcons’ season are below:
- at Toledo: 50.8%
- at Central Michigan: 64.1%
- vs. Western Michigan: 58.9%
- at Ball State: 64.6%
- vs. Miami (OH): 60.6%
If these win probabilities were to hold true, Bowling Green would end the season with an 8-4 record and just one conference defeat. That would be the best record for the program since the Dino Babers-led 2015 campaign and give the Falcons bowl eligibility for the third successive season.
Toledo’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Toledo has a 49.2% chance of winning on Saturday. Evidence of how unpredictable the Rockets and the MAC have been this year, the CFN FPM correctly predicted the wins over Duquesne, the UMass Minutemen, and the Miami (OH) RedHawks, plus the loss to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.
Yet, our metric didn’t envision the win over the Mississippi State Bulldogs and had the script flipped for the Buffalo Bulls and Northern Illinois Huskies matchups. Here are the remaining win probabilities for the Rockets’ 2024 campaign:
- vs. Bowling Green: 49.2%
- at Eastern Michigan: 50.8%
- vs. Central Michigan: 65.7%
- vs. Ohio: 61.9%
- at Akron: 67.7%
If these win probabilities were to hold true, the Rockets would finish 2024 with a 9-3 overall record. Yet, with two conference losses, there’s a chance they would miss out on the MAC title game for the first time since 2021.
Prediction for Bowling Green vs. Toledo
Do you want an idea of just what the Battle of I-75 rivalry means to these two programs? Outside of the Glass Bowl stands a rocket from the US Army missile program that is pointed toward Bowling Green State University. If lit, it would land directly on the 50-yard line of the Falcons’ Doyt Perry Stadium.
Adjust your expectations of what this rivalry means to the two programs accordingly. Then, throw in the fact that the loser will be at a severe disadvantage in the race to the MAC Championship Game, and you have an idea of how much this game matters. So, who’s got the edge, and where will the key battles unfold when Toledo and Bowling Green play on Saturday?
Bowling Green may receive something of a boost before they even step foot on the Glass Bowl field on Saturday. Toledo starting quarterback Tucker Gleason left the Rockets’ game against Buffalo in Week 7 and missed the win over Northern Illinois in Week 8 with an “undisclosed injury,” with no news about whether he’ll return in the Battle of I-75.
Gleason’s loss is not insignificant. He leads the MAC in passing touchdowns and has helped the Rockets to lead the conference in passing offense, averaging 254.4 yards per game. Replacing Dequan Finn was never going to be easy, but the former Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets QB has handled himself with aplomb. That said, backup John Alan Richter proved he can lead this team.
Thankfully for Richter, he has a strong cast of playmakers alongside him, led by wide receiver Jerjuan Newton. The Toledo standout paces the team in receiving yards (581) and touchdown receptions (eight) and will prove a handful for a Bowling Green pass defense that has been stout. The Falcons have allowed just eight touchdowns and a 54.1% completion.
The Falcons’ offense has averaged just 25.1 points per game, but Connor Bazelak still leads the conference in completion percentage and passing yards, buoyed by All-American tight end Harold Fannin Jr., who is an absolute monster for any defense to have to handle.
Terion Stewart’s presence in the backfield gives Scot Loeffler’s team a multi-faceted offense that can be tricky to tame despite being the 86th-ranked scoring unit in the nation.
That said, Toledo should possess the defense to slow the Bowling Green attack. Saftey Maxen Hook is one of the most underrated defensive backs in the country. Dan Bolden and Jackson Borrow form a formidable duo as linebackers. Good luck running the ball against defensive tackle Darius Alexander. That could prove the difference in an exciting MAC battle you don’t want to miss.
Prediction: Bowling Green 21, Toledo 24
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.
