This was meant to be the year for the Virginia Tech Hokies. With the schedule, strong quarterback play, and a seasoned defense, everything seemed set for a special season. But halfway through, the Hokies sit at 3-3, struggling with a 0-3 record in one-score games.
Now, they’re up against a Boston College Eagles squad that’s been inconsistent under Bill O’Brien in his first season. The Eagles, who started 4-1, faltered against Virginia right before their bye. Here’s our prediction for this mid-week ACC showdown between Boston College and Virginia Tech.
Boston College vs. Virginia Tech Betting Preview
All Boston College vs. Virginia Tech odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 17, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Virginia Tech -2 - Spread
Virginia Tech -8 - Moneyline
Virginia Tech -310, Boston College +250 - Over/Under
48 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Lane Stadium | Blacksburg, VA - Predicted Weather at Kick
48 degrees, clear, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
The Hokies opened up as a seven-point favorite on Sunday, and the spread has held steady through game week. Being favored by the oddsmakers hasn’t necessarily been a positive thing for Virginia Tech this season, falling to defeat and failing to cover when expected to win multiple times.
They dropped games against Vanderbilt and Rutgers while Marshall covered in defeat.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
However, Boston College has failed to cover in their last three games, so something will have to give on Thursday night. After beating Florida State and covering the spread, they’ve lost the other two games when entering the game as an underdog, going 1-1 against the spread in those two games.
Only one game involving the Eagles has covered the points total this season.
Boston College’s Winning Probability
Per the FPM, the Eagles have a much better chance of winning than Vegas suggests. Boston College has a 46.6% chance to win the game, per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about two points.
The Eagles have a wide range of outcomes down the stretch as they have between a 45% and 55% chance to win four of their remaining six games. Here are Boston College’s winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Virginia Tech: 46.6%
- vs. Louisville: 48.8%
- vs. Syracuse: 51.8%
- at SMU: 36.4%
- vs. North Carolina: 75.5%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 49.4%
Virginia Tech’s Winning Probability
Though the schedule initially looked favorable for Virginia Tech, FPM thinks the Hokies have several tough games left on the schedule. Virginia Tech has a 53.4% chance to win the game, per FPM. The Hokies have several true toss-ups left on the schedule, making this a crucial game.
Here are the Hokies’ winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Boston College: 53.4%
- vs. Georgia Tech: 49.2%
- at Syracuse: 46.2%
- vs. Clemson: 26.6%
- at Duke: 50.4%
- vs. Virginia: 64.6%
Prediction for Boston College vs. Virginia Tech
Statistically, there’s a lot of random variation and luck involved in winning or losing tight games.
Virginia Tech’s Brent Pry is hoping his fortunes are about to turn.
Pry holds a 1-10 record in one-score games as a head coach and is eager to prove he’s not an outlier when it comes to late-game struggles.
The Hokies could be sitting at 6-0, but some poor clock management against Vanderbilt and Miami, along with a costly Kyren Drones interception that thwarted a comeback against Rutgers, have derailed their season.
What once promised to be a magical season is now teetering on disappointment.
On the other side, Boston College head coach Bill O’Brien has his team looking surprisingly solid, despite a 24-14 setback to Virginia a couple of weeks ago. Coming off a bye, the Eagles will aim to regain momentum in Blacksburg.
The setting will be challenging—weeknight games in Blacksburg always bring a raucous home crowd—but quarterback Thomas Castellanos has been steady this season. The defense has been even better, though it could use some support from the offense.
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To keep it simple, I believe O’Brien’s coaching will keep the Eagles competitive coming off the bye, especially with Virginia Tech on short rest. I just don’t trust Pry to come out on top if it’s a tight contest.
Fade the Hokies and brace for a scrappy game. Both teams are capable of forcing turnovers, but they’re also prone to mistakes. If Virginia Tech jumps out to an early lead, they could push the Eagles’ offense into errors, but if it’s close from the start, Boston College’s defense could frustrate the Hokies.
I see this game being tight early on, and that spells trouble for Virginia Tech. It might be messy, but it’ll be entertaining. What else would you expect from a mid-week ACC clash? Look for the Eagles to spring an upset in a low-scoring, hard-fought battle.
Prediction: Boston College 24, Virginia Tech 20
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