Ah, yes, the ACC powerhouse SMU Mustangs—just as everyone expected, right? In their first season as a member of a power conference, the Mustangs have defied expectations, standing as the ACC’s last unbeaten team and inching closer to a spot in the ACC Championship Game. Just a few more obstacles remain.
Up next: the Boston College Eagles on Saturday. Can Bill O’Brien and his team disrupt SMU’s title hopes? Check out our Boston College vs. SMU prediction to see where we stand.
Boston College vs. SMU Betting Preview
All Clemson vs. Pittsburgh odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
SMU -11.5 - Spread
SMU -18.5 - Moneyline
SMU -1000, Boston College +650 - Over/Under
54 points - Game Time
Nov. 16, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Gerald J. Ford Stadium | Dallas - Predicted Weather at Kick
74 degrees, sunny, 10 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
SMU has been a revelation this season, losing only to the undefeated BYU Cougars early in the year before figuring out the quarterback situation. Since Kevin Jennings has assumed full-time quarterback duties, they’ve been fantastic. Boston College has had a roller coaster of a first year under O’Brien, but the signs for the future are positive.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 54 points and a spread of 18.5 points, Vegas implies a final score close to 31-14 in favor of the Mustangs.
Boston College’s Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Eagles have a 19.4% chance of winning on Saturday. Needing two more wins for bowl eligibility, the Eagles have two winnable but not easy games to end the year.
- at SMU: 19.4%
- vs. North Carolina: 66.4%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 48.2%
SMU’s Winning Probability
Conversely, SMU has an 80.6% chance of beating the Eagles at home. The formula is simple: keep winning. While the Mustangs could likely afford a single slip-up while still making the ACC Championship Game, a regular season loss would hurt their chances of an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff, if they were to lose again in the championship.
- vs. Boston College: 80.6%
- at Virginia: 73%
- at California: 74.9%
Prediction for Boston College vs. SMU
SMU’s path to victory hasn’t been about jumping out to early leads and cruising to blowouts, outside of their dominant win over Pittsburgh. Instead, the Mustangs have leaned on their depth and offensive versatility, wearing teams down and pulling away late in games.
Boston College, meanwhile, has been a tough out for every opponent this season. They’ve avoided blowout losses entirely, with just two FBS games involving the Eagles decided by more than 10 points—both in standalone prime-time matchups, where they experienced both victory and defeat.
Close games have been Boston College’s specialty, and they’ve found ways to come out on top in several of them.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
While I don’t see Boston College pulling off an upset to shake up the ACC standings, they have the tools to keep this one competitive. A one-score game heading into the fourth quarter wouldn’t be shocking. Thomas Castellanos had shown tremendous growth as a passer this season, and when Boston College’s run game is clicking, it can be a challenge to stop.
But with Castellanos no longer in the mix, the dynamics have shifted.
Without Castellanos, SMU’s strengths in limiting explosive plays and tightening up in the red zone become even more pivotal—two areas that often decide close games.
That’s where SMU holds the edge. However, given the Mustangs’ knack for close wins and Boston College’s ability to stay competitive, trusting SMU to cover is a tough ask. The Eagles are likely to make this a fight, even if SMU ultimately prevails where it matters most.
In the end, I’m expecting a tight, back-and-forth battle that edges past the total. SMU escapes with a win that feels more convincing than the final score will reflect
Prediction: SMU 35, Boston College 20
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.