Back on Friday night of Week 14, Boise State kept their playoff hopes alive. By knocking off Oregon State, the Broncos rolled into the Mountain West Championship Game as winners of 10 in a row and as arguably one of the hottest teams in the country.
As they awaited to find out their opponent would be the UNLV Rebels in the MWC Championship Game, the Boise State playoff odds grew.
Boise State’s Mountain West Championship Chances
While Boise State punched their ticket to the Mountain West title game a couple weeks ago, it was unknown who they would play in the title game until Colorado State and UNLV played in Week 14. With CSU dropping their game, UNLV needed to just simply not have a catastrophic outing against Nevada to stay in line to play.
With the results in hand, it’s UNLV convincingly joining Boise State in the Mountain West Championship Game in what is now a rematch that means more than any previous Group of Five championship game ever has.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
More on the importance of this game later, but right now, it’s imperative we look at how this game stacks up, given these two teams have already played once before this season.
The CFN Playoff Predictor gives Boise State a 50.8% chance to defeat UNLV in the title game. And in doing so, the Broncos would punch their ticket to the playoffs.
How Can Boise State Make the Playoffs?
Let’s look at it this way — the only way Boise State can miss the playoffs is if they lose to UNLV in the title game. So, putting it nicely, if Boise State defeats UNLV, not only will they be crowned Mountain West Champions, they’ll earn the right to represent the Group of Five as the G5 representative in the playoffs.
Boise State would remain the highest-ranked Group of Five program by defeating UNLV, and thus, punch their ticket to the playoffs. That’s because no other G5 team is within striking distance of Boise State.
Last week, only three G5 teams were ranked in the committee’s top 25:
- No. 11 Boise State
- No. 17 Tulane
- No. 22 UNLV
Tulane lost on Thanksgiving night to Memphis, thus knocking the Green Wave out of the picture here. The only team left that may be within striking distance would be fellow AAC Championship Game contender — Army. However, Army suffered a brutal loss to Notre Dame just two weeks prior and there’s likely no way the Mountain West champion would be ranked lower than Army, even if the Black Knights win the AAC.
And as it stands, the winner of the game between UNLV and Boise State will earn the right to be the lone G5 representative in the playoffs.
So, there you have it, Boise State fans. Win one more time against UNLV and earn the right to be the Mountain West Champions in 2024.
And, in doing so, play your way into the College Football Playoffs at the same time.
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