The Boise State Broncos and UNLV Rebels have had this matchup highlighted ever since it became evident that both teams are in the hunt for the Group of Five’s elusive College Football Playoff berth. With everything at stake, the winner will gain a crucial edge in steering their own path, while the loser faces the risk of slipping out of the race.
In our Boise State vs. UNLV preview, we dive into the details of the matchup, provide key betting insights, and offer recommendations on the best places to place your bets.
Boise State vs. UNLV Prediction Betting Preview
All Boise State vs. UNLV Prediction odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UNLV -1.5 - Spread
Boise State -4.5 - Moneyline
Boise State -170, UNLV +142 - Over/Under
64 points - Game Time
10:30 p.m. ET, Friday, Oct. 25 - Location
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nev. - Predicted Weather at Kick
78 degrees, 5 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
CBSSN
Neither the total nor the spread have moved since opening, with bettors aligning with the sportbooks’ initial read of the contest.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
For those looking to sprinkle some cheddar on the total, the over is the play, with it hitting in eight of Boise state’s last nine games and seven of UNLV’s last 10.
Trends-wise, both sides of the spread are appetizing, as the Broncos are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six Week 9 contests, while UNLV is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as the underdog.
Boise State’s Winning Probability
Despite their only loss coming by three points against No. 1 ranked Oregon, the Broncos head into Week 9 with a 47.5% win probability. That said, it’s by far their lowest on the remaining schedule, with the FPM giving them 75% or higher win probabilities the rest of the way:
- vs. San Diego State: 90.8%
- vs. Nevada: 89.8%
- at San Jose State: 80.2%
- at Wyoming: 91.5%
- vs. Oregon State: 77.4%
UNLV’s Winning Probability
The Rebels’ rest-of-season outlook is even more promising. Their 52.5% win probability against Boise State is followed by over 80% rates in their final four contests:
- at Hawaii: 82.6%
- vs. San Diego State: 89.1%
- at San Jose State: 80.2%
- vs. Nevada: 88.6%
Prediction for Boise State vs. UNLV
The Rebels have spent years near the bottom of the Mountain West, but Barry Odom has flipped the script. Since taking over in 2023, Odom has led UNLV to 15 wins—the same number the program managed over the previous five years combined.
Now, they face a tough test in Boise State, which enters this matchup on a seven-game winning streak, including a dominant 44-20 victory in last year’s Mountain West Championship.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The stats highlight the importance of all three phases in this game:
- UNLV leads the nation with four blocked punts, thanks largely to WR Ricky White III, who has three of those, including two returned for touchdowns
- UNLV has also blocked four kicks (T-2nd), with Boise State close behind at three
- Both teams have scored on a kickoff return
- Boise State tops the nation with 29 sacks
- Boise State ranks fourth in third-down conversion rate (54.4%), though their defense lags, sitting 124th (46.4%)
- UNLV ranks 89th in third-down conversion rate, but their defense is stronger at 58th (37.1%)
- UNLV boasts a +12 turnover margin, while Boise State holds a +1
- UNLV’s defense ranks 20th in rushing yards allowed per game (104.6), while Boise State’s offense is second in rushing yards per game (289.8)
This showdown between Group of Five contenders has all the makings of a high-scoring thriller. Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty is expected to put on a show, having rushed for over 100 yards in every game this season (and over 200 yards in three), with more rushing yards (1,248) than 88 FBS teams.
But Boise State’s defense faces a new challenge in UNLV’s explosive offense, led by offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, dual-threat QB Hajj-Malik Williams, and dynamic WR Ricky White. On the flip side, Boise State will need QB Maddux Madsen to rise to the occasion—but I have my doubts.
Take the Rebels against the spread, on the moneyline, and the over in what could be a Game of the Year contender.
Prediction: UNLV 44, Boise State 38
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