The term upset is synonymous with the sport of college football as a whole. The CFN Upset Tracker details the best of the best in terms of upsets from the calendar year in college football.
Week 5 Biggest Upsets
Kentucky 20, Ole Miss 17, Final
Mark Stoops’ extremely conservative nature looked like it might cost him another chance at an upset. But with his back against the wall, Stoops went for it on fourth-and-eight on his own 18. Barion Brown bailed him out with a huge gain, and the Wildcats went back to running counter, which they succeeded in utilizing in the first half.
Kentucky followed the “best way to help your defense is to keep your offense on the field” method for most of the game, holding the ball for nearly 40 minutes in the game.
When the Wildcats were on defense, they did a tremendous job of limiting the big plays and forcing Ole Miss to drive the length of the field. If forced to be patient, Ole Miss would eventually make mistakes. It was a brilliant game plan, similar to the one against Georgia.
Week 5 Closest Calls
Western Kentucky 20, Boston College 21, Final
I had this one pegged as a potential upset even before Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos was ruled out. This shocking development caused the line to move five points in Western Kentucky’s favor in less than an hour earlier this week.
Western Kentucky goes as quarterback Caden Veltkamp goes, and so far, he’s been fantastic. Veltkamp started 9-9 and finished the first half 17-for-21 with 165 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.
In the second half though, fortune shifted for the Eagles, as both quarterback Grayson James and the Boston College defense for their rhythms. James isn’t the dual-threat Thomas Castellanos is, but he used his feet effectively in the second half. He gained confidence as the game wore on, and the defense clamped down on Veltkamp.
Northern Illinois 17, NC State 24, Final
Man, was I wrong about NC State.
The defense is probably the worst Dave Doeren has had in his tenure and an offense that was supposed to be built around a power running game and dynamite receivers doesn’t have a power running game.
The offensive and defensive lines, in particular, have been major disappointments. The Huskies’ ability to not only hold their own but also control the line of scrimmage has been surprising, even given the struggles the Wolfpack have had this year.
The difference here was that NC State was able to capitalize on two fumbles, one that was recovered for a touchdown and another that was recovered at the Northern Illinois two-yard line. Without those, Northern Illinois would have likely pulled off the upset.
Predicting the Week 5 College Football Upsets
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (+7) Over Troy Trojans
Like Buffalo, Louisiana-Monroe is much better than expected and the market hasn’t caught up to that fact. Bryant Vincent’s group is playing hard and the defense has been excellent. Even Arch Manning struggled a bit against that defensive front.
On the flip side, it’s clear this is a “Year Zero” situation for Troy under new head coach Gerad Parker. The Trojans are 0-3 against FBS competition and the defense is not nearly as talented as a year ago.
Louisiana-Monroe has struggled to throw the ball, but Troy has struggled to stop the run and this could be a ball-control type of game for the Warhawks. They’ll be on the road, but I think the perennial Sun Belt bottom-feeder can pull this one out.
South Alabama Jaguars (+21.5) Over No. 14 LSU Tigers
This is a long shot, but that’s why it’s an upset. This would be dependent on matchups and game script. South Alabama doesn’t have the defensive talent to slow down the Tigers’ offense, but they’ve been opportunistic and could catch an LSU team that has struggled some this season in a trap game situation. The Tigers have a bye before a huge game against Ole Miss on Oct. 12.
If there’s a glaring flaw with LSU, it’s the run defense. That just so happens to play into the hands of a talented South Alabama rushing attack led by quarterback Gio Lopez and freshman running back Fluff Bothwell.
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LSU has struggled some with mobile quarterbacks this season as the Tigers gave up over 125 sack-adjusted rushing yards to South Carolina’s quarterbacks. With Harold Perkins out, the Brian Kelly’s team might struggle there.
It’d take a few takeaways, but LSU is not immune to upset here.
Other Potential College Football Upsets in Week 5
- Florida State Seminoles (+6) over SMU Mustangs
- Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (+6.5) over North Texas Mean Green
- South Florida Bulls (+5) over Tulane Green Wave
- Washington State Cougars (+7.5) over No. 25 Boise State Broncos
- New Mexico State Aggies (+9) over New Mexico Lobos
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