The Big Ten is officially the biggest conference in college football after expanding to 18 teams for the 2024 college football season and it might also be the tightest. With multiple teams capable of earning a conference crown, who is the favorite to win the Big Ten in 2024, according to the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter?
Big Ten Championship Predictions
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and, ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
Below are the CFN FPM percentages for winning the 2024 Big Ten Championship:
- Oregon Ducks – 33.5%
- Ohio State Buckeyes – 30.3%
- Penn State Nittany Lions – 15.3%
- USC Trojans – 11.7%
- Indiana Hoosiers – 4.6%
- Michigan Wolverines – 3.7%
- Iowa Hawkeyes – 0.5%
- Nebraska Cornhuskers – 0.2%
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights – 0.1%
- Illinois Fighting Illini – 0.1%
- Maryland Terrapins – 0.1%
- Wisconsin Badgers – 0.1%
- Minnesota Golden Gophers – 0.1%
- Washington Huskies – 0.1%
- Michigan State Spartans – 0%
- UCLA Bruins – 0%
- Northwestern Wildcats – 0%
- Purdue Boilermakers – 0%
Oregon Ducks – 33.5%
After coming close to the College Football Playoff as a Pac-12 outfit one year ago, the Oregon Ducks entered the Big Ten this offseason with the expectation that they’d immediately assert themselves as a title contender. They’ve yet to face a conference opponent, but that early presumption appears to be well-placed with Dan Lanning’s team atop our Big Ten predictions.
The Ducks only rank ninth in the AP Poll Top 25 right now after a less-than-scintillating start to the year, but the CFN FPM gives them a 17.9% chance of going undefeated, helping power their 33.5% chance of winning the Big Ten. Hosting Ohio State rather than traveling to Columbus could be a significant factor in deciding the destination of the Big Ten crown.
Ohio State Buckeyes – 30.3%
The pressure is on Ryan Day to deliver some tangible success for the Ohio State Buckeyes this season after watching Michigan win the conference crown the last three seasons. Thankfully for Day and the Buckeyes, they have been able to attract some of the top transfer portal talent, recruit to a high level, and retain some of their top talent on the roster using the benefits of NIL.
Through two games, the results have been promising. Ohio State leads the nation in scoring defense (3.0 points per game) while ranking in the top 10 for scoring (54.0 points per) and total offense (534.5 yards per game). The margins between the Buckeyes and Ducks are wafer-thin, with Oregon closer to an 11-1 season than the Buckeyes, according to the CFN FPM.
Penn State Nittany Lions – 15.3%
You have to feel a little bit sorry for the Penn State Nittany Lions. They’ve been a perennial bridesmaid to Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten in recent years. Now they’re free from the shackles of a division that contained both teams, the addition of Oregon stands in the way of Big Ten glory for James Franklin’s team.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Nittany Lions are projected to finish with a 10-2 record, with an 8.35% chance of winning all the remaining games on a schedule that ranks as the sixth-most difficult in the conference. QB Drew Allar currently leads the Big Ten in yards per attempt (11.4), adjusted yards per attempt (12.8), and yards per completion (17.5) but is that enough to lead them to a conference crown?
USC Trojans – 11.7%
The USC Trojans haven’t attracted the same level of national attention as Oregon in making the move to the Big Ten after a difficult 2023 season and the loss of quarterback Caleb Williams. However, an opening weekend win over the LSU Tigers and a beatdown of Utah State has Lincoln Riley’s team smack-bang in the middle of the College Football Playoff conversation.
Battling the fourth-most difficult Big Ten strength of schedule, the Trojans are currently projected to finish 9-3, giving them an 11.7% chance of winning the conference title.
While the emergence of Miller Moss has helped USC maintain its standing as an offensive powerhouse, it is a defense that ranks 18th in points allowed (10.0 PPG) compared to the 121st (34.4 PPG) they finished the 2023 campaign that will dictate whether the Trojans ride through the Big Ten and into the College Football Playoff.
Indiana Hoosiers – 4.6%
Show me the man who claims to have had the Indiana Hoosiers viewed as one of the top teams in the Big Ten early in the season before the kickoff of the 2024 campaign, and I’ll show you a liar. New head coach Curt Cignetti has a remarkable record in college football, but with a huge cohort of portal players, turning around the fortunes of a beleaguered program shouldn’t be instant.
Or it shouldn’t have been. However, we head into Week 4 with the Hoosiers undefeated behind QB Kurtis “Maple Missile” Rourke and looking at a projected 8-4 record. With a Big Ten win already on their resume after a 42-13 victory over UCLA, the CFN FPM gives them a 4.6% chance of landing a conference title.
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