The Big Ten Championship picture got a bit clearer in Week 13 following the Ohio State Buckeyes defeating the Indiana Hoosiers. Despite having another top-five matchup under their belt, the Buckeyes still have to win against Michigan to guarantee their spot in the Big Ten Championship. Let’s break it down.
Big Ten Championship Game Odds
The Vegas lines will be out soon enough. But before we get their latest Big Ten Championship odds after Week 13, let’s look at the road map for each team and use the CFN Football Playoff Meter as a guide to see who is most likely to make (and win) the title game.
So, here’s what we did, we locked in the results following Ohio State’s win over Indiana, as well as every other Big Ten game, for that matter.
We then simulated the final week of the Big Ten regular season 10,000 times, locking in with those current results and simulating the final weekend of action in the process. Here’s how each team fared and an explanation of how we got there further down.
Big Ten Championship Game Winning Probability
- Oregon: 50.90%
- Ohio State: 42.10%
- Indiana: 5.59%
- Penn State: 1.41%
So here’s what we’re looking at for the Big Ten Championship: Ohio State and Oregon made the game on over 90% of the simulations. Since Ohio State still has to get by Michigan in Week 14, Indiana and Penn State have hope.
The sim likened Indiana to make it to the Big Ten Championship in the event Ohio State did lose to Michigan more than the Nittany Lions. But the simulation liked Ohio State to win more often than any other team when they made it.
We’ll get into the exact road maps for each scenario below the standings.
Updated Big Ten Standings
1) Indiana Hoosiers 10-0 (7-0)
2) Oregon Ducks 11-0 (8-0)
3) Ohio State Buckeyes 9-1 (6-1)
4) Penn State Nittany Lions 9-1 (6-1)
5) Iowa Hawkeyes 6-4 (4-3)
6) Minnesota Golden Gophers 6-4 (4-3)
7) Illinois Fighting Illini 7-3 (4-3)
8) Washington Huskies 6-5 (4-4)
9) Wisconsin Badgers 5-5 (3-4)
10) Rutgers Scarlet Knights 6-4 (3-4)
11) Michigan Wolverines 5-5 (3-4)
12) USC Trojans 5-5 (3-5)
13) UCLA Bruins 4-6 (3-5)
14) Nebraska Cornhuskers 5-5 (2-5)
15) Michigan State Spartans 4-6 (2-5)
15) Northwestern Wildcats 4-6 (2-5)
17) Maryland Terrapins 4-6 (1-6)
18) Purdue Boilermakers 1-9 (0-7)
Oregon’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
For the Ducks, they now have the proverbial monkey off their backs. They are in the Big Ten Championship Game win or loss against Washington in Week 14. With a bye week to get healthy and potentially get Tez Johnson back for the postseason push, Oregon sat back and watched their potential opponents square off in Week 13 with everything on the line.
Fortunately for Ducks fans, they have a leg up on the Huskies and on their inevitable Big Ten foe.
- Washington: 94.4%
- Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Ohio State: 51.7%
Ohio State’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
The Buckeyes control their own destiny, needing only to defeat archrival Michigan in The Game in Week 14. OSU will be heavily favored against the Wolverines and should be able to punch their ticket into the Big Ten Championship Game with relative ease.
But that’s what rivalry games are for.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Buckeyes are in with a win and out with a loss, unless Indiana and Penn State lose in Week 14 as well. But the likelihood of all three of those happenings is next to nothing (but Penn State would be in in that scenario). Win and you’re in OSU. Loss and you’re headed to the playoffs (maybe).
- Michigan: 91.3%
- Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Oregon: 48.3%
Indiana’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
Okay, so let the loss to Ohio State settle and sink in. The punt team was responsible for the loss by all accounts, but IU certainly played well enough to keep their place in the playoff committee’s eyes, we’d hope.
Now, to how they can make the Big Ten Championship Game. It’s as simple as this: Penn State loses one of two and Ohio State loses to Michigan. Oh, and Indiana has to beat Purdue in Week 14.
This is because Indiana doesn’t own the tiebreaker against Penn State if they both finish with an 8-1 record in Big Ten play. Let’s break that down. The tiebreakers state that it would go to head-to-head record — but Indiana and Penn State didn’t play each other.
So, then it’s record against common opponents:
- vs. UCLA
- Indiana: win
- Penn State: win
- vs. Maryland
- Indiana: win
- Penn State: (hypothetical) win
- vs. Washington
- Indiana: win
- Penn State: win
- vs. Ohio State
- Indiana: loss
- Penn State: loss
- vs. Purdue
- Indiana: (hypothetical) win
- Penn State: win
So each team would be 4-1 against common conference opponents and have lost to the same team (Ohio State). In this instance, we have to move to Big Ten tiebreaker scenario No. 4 as No. 3 does us no good either. Tiebreaker scenario No. 4 looks at ‘cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.’
Looking at it that way and you have the following results:
- Indiana conference opponent winning percentage: 36.7% (25-43)
- UCLA: 3-5
- Maryland: 1-6
- Northwestern: 2-5
- Nebraska: 2-5
- Washington: 4-4
- Michigan State: 3-5
- Michigan: 3-4
- Ohio State: 7-1
- Purdue: 0-8
- Penn State conference opponent winning percentage: 42.6% (29-39)
- Illinois: 4-3
- UCLA: 3-5
- USC: 3-5
- Wisconsin: 3-4
- Ohio State: 7-1
- Washington: 4-4
- Purdue: 0-8
- Minnesota: 4-3
- Maryland: 1-6
And sadly, for Indiana fans, tiebreaker No. 4 goes to Penn State in this scenario. Even with the games remaining, there’s a big enough gap that PSU will own this tiebreaker over Indiana all the way through.
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Hoosier fans are now the biggest Michigan and Maryland fans there are, rooting for both to beat Ohio State and Penn State, respectively.
- Purdue: 96.6%
- Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Oregon: 27.6%
Penn State’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
After going heavily through the scenarios for the Hoosiers above, it’s clear that Penn State needs some help to get to the Big Ten Championship Game. But, of course, they’re not out of it. And of course, this is only if they win out.
Here’s how this works for Penn State to make the Big Ten Championship after Indiana’s loss to Ohio State:
- Ohio State loses to Michigan
- Penn State wins out
- Penn State wins the tiebreaker against Indiana
With that situation happening, the Nittany Lions would own the tiebreaker over Indiana and make the Big Ten Championship Game. In this scenario, Penn State is still most likely the highest-ranked at-large team if they win out and miss the Big Ten Championship Game.
So while you root on your Nittany Lions down the stretch, you’re also going to become the biggest Michigan fans there are in Week 14.
- Maryland: 93.9%
- Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Oregon: 46.5%
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