The spotlight shines brightest in Indianapolis this weekend, where Lucas Oil Stadium hosts the only top-five showdown of championship weekend. The undefeated Oregon Ducks take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Big Ten Championship Game.
For Oregon, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The Ducks are fighting to preserve the only perfect record in the FBS and lock in the coveted No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. For Penn State, this is a rare opportunity—just their second trip to the Big Ten title game—a chance to reshape their program’s narrative and cap the season with a monumental win.
Big Ten Championship Game Betting Preview
All Penn State vs. Oregon odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -5 - Spread
Oregon -3.5 - Moneyline
Oregon -170, Penn State +142 - Over/Under
50.5 points - Game time
Saturday, Dec. 7 | 8 p.m. ET - Location
Lucas Oil Stadium | Indianapolis, IN - Predicted Weather at Kick
30 degrees, partly cloudy, 7 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS
The Ducks opened as 3.5-point favorites in the Big Ten title game, and that number has not wavered. Oregon has been the favorite in every game but one in 2024 (3.5-point home dogs on Oct. 12 to the No. 2 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes, won 32-31).
The total opened at 50.5 and has only seen movement that has dropped the total. The number has gotten as low as 49.5 but now currently sits at an even 50.
The total and spread will likely see more action as Saturday’s kickoff approaches. Oregon enters at 5-6 on the season against the spread as a favorite, but they’re 2-0 ATS against ranked opponents in 2024. The over is 5-7 on Oregon games in 2024.
Penn State has only been an underdog once in 2024, and it’s 0-1 ATS as a dog. Overall, it is 6-6 ATS in 2024. The over is also 5-7 in Nittany Lions games this season.
Penn State’s Winning Probability
Penn State stands on the brink of history, chasing its fifth Big Ten championship and second under head coach James Franklin. It’s a quest for glory, a return to the pinnacle they last reached in 2016. Yet, the odds stand against them. The College Football Network Playoff Meter gives the Nittany Lions a 35.9% chance to claim the title.
- at Oregon: 35.9%
Oregon’s Winning Probability
Oregon enters championship weekend with a commanding presence, carrying the strongest odds of any team vying for a title. In their inaugural Big Ten season, the Ducks have soared above expectations, and the CFN FPM places their chances of hoisting the trophy at a confident 64.1%.
For Oregon, this moment represents more than a championship; it’s the culmination of a journey, a declaration of belonging. Under the bright lights of Indianapolis, the Ducks will aim to leave no doubt about their place atop the Big Ten.
- vs. Penn State: 64.1%
Big Ten Championship Game Prediction
Penn State’s journey under James Franklin has been defined by resilience but shadowed by one glaring shortfall: just a single victory against a top-five opponent.
That storyline took another turn in November with a home loss to Ohio State. Yet, where others have faltered, Penn State has remained steady, avoiding the upsets that have derailed so many top-10 teams this season. Since that defeat, the Nittany Lions have rebounded impressively, reeling off four straight wins—three in commanding, double-digit fashion.
The offense is anchored by junior quarterback Drew Allar, whose 2,668 passing yards and 18 touchdowns reflect a poised and reliable leader. He’s supported by a massive offensive line and one of the nation’s top backfield duos, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen—arguably the best one-two punch at running back in college football.
On defense, Penn State shines brightly. Edge rusher Abdul Carter has been a terror, leading the Big Ten with 19.5 tackles for loss, while the secondary has snagged 12 interceptions, contributing to an impressive +7 turnover margin.
But standing in their way is Oregon—a team that has met every challenge in 2024. First-year Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel has orchestrated the offense with precision, throwing for 3,275 yards and 24 touchdowns.
Though his Heisman buzz has been quiet, Gabriel’s résumé speaks volumes, with wins over Ohio State and Boise State—achievements unmatched by any other quarterback. Complementing him is running back Jordan James, who has rumbled for 1,166 yards and 13 touchdowns, adding power to Oregon’s lightning-fast attack.
Defensively, Matayo Uiagalelei has been a game-changer, tallying 10.5 sacks for a unit that ranks fourth in the Big Ten.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With the College Football Playoff within reach, the stakes couldn’t be higher. For Penn State, it’s about proving they belong. For Oregon, it’s about solidifying their claim as the nation’s best team.
Franklin’s record in marquee games leaves lingering doubts, while Dan Lanning’s success in high-pressure moments speaks for itself. Under the bright lights in Indianapolis, the Ducks seize their opportunity.
Oregon leaves no room for debate—they are the best team in college football.
Prediction: Oregon 27, Penn State 17
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