The Big 12 promised to be one of the most competitive college football conferences ahead of the season, and so far this fall, it is living up to that potential. As the conference continues to cannibalize itself in a way befitting the high former Pac-12 contingent, the latest Big 12 predictions powered by the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter showcase how close it is.
Big 12 Championship Predictions
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and, ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
Below are the CFN FPM percentages for winning the 2024 Big 12 Championship ahead of Week 6:
- Utah Utes – 23.9%
- Kansas State Wildcats – 22.5%
- Arizona Wildcats – 19.8%
- Iowa State Cyclones – 12.9%
- BYU Cougars – 8.4%
- Oklahoma State Cowboys – 5.2%
- TCU Horned Frogs – 1.5%
- Colorado Buffaloes – 1.3%
- UCF Knights – 0.9%
- Baylor Bears – 0.8%
- Kansas Jayhawks – 0.8%
- West Virginia Mountaineers – 0.7%
- Texas Tech Red Raiders – 0.7%
- Arizona State Sun Devils – 0.3%
- Cincinnati Bearcats – 0.2%
- Houston Cougars – 0.1%
Utah Utes – 23.9%
In Week 4, the Utah Utes passed their Stillwater test in decisive fashion, beating Oklahoma State in a manner befitting a conference contender. It was deemed as a pivotal clash for Kyle Whittingham and his team, but one week later, it is all but forgotten following a defeat to the Arizona Wildcats that redresses the balance and opens up conference competition.
Utah had triple the percentage chance of winning the title before Week 5, but now they hold the most slender of advantages over the Kansas State Wildcats. Our Big 12 predictions give the Utes a 23.9% chance of victory with a 5.5% chance of winning the rest of their games on the schedule. The return of Cam Rising (if he does return) could swing things for a team with a strong defense.
Kansas State Wildcats – 22.5%
Kansas State is the walking embodiment of Big 12 teams embracing their former Pac-12 companions and succumbing to their cannibalistic ways. After suffering a pummeling at the hands of BYU in Week 4, Chris Klieman’s men gave Oklahoma State a serious shellacking in Week 5, bringing them to a 4-1 overall record and 2-1 in conference play.
That win pushed the Wildcats’ projected record to 9-3, one they share with three other teams in the conference as a further sign of how close the competition is in the Big 12 this year. While they face just one more AP Poll-ranked team down the stretch of the season, they have four road trips in their final seven games, having struggled away from Manhattan twice this season already.
Arizona Wildcats – 19.8%
“Arizona has the easiest strength of schedule in the conference, so if they can beat Utah in Week 5, their 7.8% chance of winning the title should improve.”
And so it came to pass. Having lost in spectacular style to Kansas State in mid-September, the bye week appeared to galvanize this highly-rated Wildcats team as they held off Isaac Wilson and the Utah Utes offense while turning in a defensive display more usually associated with their former Pac-12 companion.
Subsequently, Arizona’s chances of winning the conference ramped up to 19.8% in our latest Big 12 predictions. For my money, they still boast the best quarterback and wide receiver combination in the conference with Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan, while Tacario Davis showed off his All-American potential at cornerback in the Week 5 win.
Iowa State Cyclones – 12.9%
Iowa State has been a perennial contender under Matt Campbell, but they’ve struggled to get across the finishing line and land a conference crown. With the top-ranked scoring defense (7.3 points per game), top-ranked total defense (255.3 yards per game), the best turnover margin (+1.75 per game), and the best red zone defense in the Big 12, they have a chance to compete.
The Cyclones also have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the conference and an unblemished record heading into Week 6. So, why only a 12.9% chance of Campbell finally landing a title in 2024? Well, their season is extremely back-heavy, with both Utah and Kansas State to overcome over the final two games of the season, giving them just a 4.2% chance of winning out.
BYU Cougars – 8.4%
The BYU Cougars have been one of the early surprises of the season, entering their Week 6 bye with an undefeated record that includes two conference wins. Kalani Sitake’s team is playing a fierce brand of defensive football, and other than in Week 2 against SMU, has put up 30+ points on offense every week with Jake Retzlaff spearheading a unit ranked ahead of the rest of the teams listed above them in these Big 12 predictions.
The biggest question, and one potentially powering their 8.4% chance of winning the conference, is whether they can maintain this pace through the entire season. After rushing out to a considerable lead against Baylor, the Cougars were clawed back, and they’ll need to remain focused through four quarters to take down the likes of Arizona, Oklahoma State, and Utah.
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