The Big 12 received an injection of talented teams for the 2024 college football season, the second successive season that the conference has expanded its numbers. How are those teams fairing ahead of Week 4, and who has the inside track to winning the Big 12 Championship Game according to the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter?
Big 12 Championship Predictions
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and, ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
Below are the CFN FPM percentages for winning the 2024 Big 12 Championship:
- Kansas State Wildcats – 31.3%
- Utah Utes – 22.2%
- Arizona Wildcats – 17.2%
- Oklahoma State Cowboys – 11.7%
- Iowa State Cyclones – 11.3%
- UCF Knights – 3.1%
- Kansas Jayhawks – 0.9%
- TCU Horned Frogs – 0.7%
- Colorado Buffaloes – 0.5%
- West Virginia Mountaineers – 0.4%
- Baylor Bears – 0.2%
- Arizona State Sun Devils – 0.2%
- Texas Tech Red Raiders – 0.2%
- BYU Cougars – 0.1%
- Cincinnati Bearcats – 0.1%
- Houston Cougars – 0.1%
Kansas State Wildcats – 31.3%
Two seasons after taking home the conference crown, the Kansas State Wildcats lead the way in our Big 12 predictions. While they rank one spot behind the Utah Utes in the latest AP Poll Top 25 (Kansas State is 13th, Utah is 12th), the CFN FPM gives them a significant advantage in the race to be named champion in December.
The Wildcats currently have a 31.3% chance of lifting the conference title, buoyed by a 3-0 start that saw Chris Klieman’s team humble a strong Arizona Wildcats outfit in Week 3. Kansas State has a 4.3% chance of winning out down the stretch of the season, with arguably the toughest game remaining coming at home.
Utah Utes – 22.2%
College football Week 4 is a pivotal one for Kyle Whittingham’s team, and could see a dramatic change in their Big 12 predictions. Currently, they have a 22.2% chance to win the conference in their first year, with a 2.5% chance of winning the rest of their games. The Utes’ schedule gets significantly easier once they’ve faced the Oklahoma State Cowboys this weekend.
A slight underdog for a variety of reasons heading into that clash, a win would give them a better chance of winning out, setting them up for a run at the title. However, they’d still likely need to beat Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game after avoiding them in the regular season.
Amidst all the predictions and statistics, only one thing likely matters for the Utes: the health of quarterback Cam Rising. With him, they have proven they can take on anyone and get a result. In their only Big 12 action without him — the second half against Baylor — they failed to score a single point.
Arizona Wildcats – 17.2%
The Arizona Wildcats entered the Big 12 on a wave of expectation following a sensational Pac-12 campaign a year ago, tempered by the loss of head coach Jedd Fisch to the Washington Huskies. They dispatched New Mexico in dominant fashion to open the campaign but struggled offensively in their last two games, including in a 31-7 loss to Kansas State.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Thankfully for Brent Brennan’s team, that matchup was scheduled well in advance of conference realignment and doesn’t count toward their Big 12 total, giving them an effective clean slate heading into conference play. Arizona has the easiest strength of schedule in the conference, so if they can beat Utah in Week 5, their 17.2% chance of winning the title should improve.
Oklahoma State Cowboys – 11.7%
While it was touch-and-go in 2022, Oklahoma State has had just one losing season since Mike Gundy took over the program in 2005, and the CFN FPM projects more of the same in 2024 for the Cowboys. With the 12th-ranked schedule in the Big 12, the program is currently predicted to go 9-3, with a 2.2% chance of winning out the rest of the season.
A double-header featuring Utah and Kansas State could prove a significant stumbling block for a team that currently ranks third in the conference for scoring offense (42.7 PPG) but has struggled defensively and currently sits rock bottom of the Big 12 for total defense, having allowed 462.7 yards per game.
Iowa State Cyclones – 11.3%
Following closely behind Oklahoma State in our Big 12 predictions is an Iowa State Cyclones team who don’t start conference play until Week 5 but have already shown the resilience to gut out wins the hard way this season. After going in 13-0 at the half to bitter rival Iowa, QB Rocco Becht dragged Matt Campbell’s team to a narrow win, just their second in the rivalry game in the last decade.
Although the CFN FPM gives them just a 1.7% chance to win out, mainly due to the presence of a Utah/Kansas State doubleheader to end the season, their projected 9-3 record would tie their best-ever finish to a campaign. Currently ranked 20th by the AP Poll, they have a greater percentage chance of making the College Football Playoff (17%) than winning the Big 12.
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