Whether it’s an all-SEC battle with College Football Playoff consequences or a historic rivalry featuring an undefeated team, there are a raft of games on the Week 11 slate that will provide exciting entertainment on the 12th Saturday of the 2024 college football season.
Looking to wager but not sure where to put your money? Step this way for the best college football player props on Saturday, starting with the late slate.
Saturday College Football Player Props
Jordan James Under 106.5 Rushing Yards
I have a theory that the Oregon Ducks are going to rest starters a bit earlier for the rest of the regular season in anticipation of a 16-game schedule. But Dillon Gabriel is also chasing the Heisman Trophy, so I’m hesitant to bet his unders.
Instead, I’m going with Jordan James, who I expect to play well in the first half before taking an early rest in the second half before he hits his total.
Ollie Gordon II Over 70.5 Rushing Yards
It’s been a disappointing season for Ollie Gordon II, but the TCU Horned Frogs’ run defense is awful, and I expect Mike Gundy to know that as well. If he does anything other than run Gordon consistently, I’ll have a lot of questions.
The benefit of Gordon’s early-season struggles is that we get his rushing total at a much lower number. Gordon should get his yardage if the Oklahoma State Cowboys don’t immediately crash and burn.
Kedren Young Anytime TD (+275)
This is a long-shot bet based on a 26.5-point spread. Kedren Young has only played in three games this season, getting an average of seven carries in those blowouts.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish should be up big in this one and I expect Young to play more late in the game. I don’t mind sprinkling a long-shot bet every once in a while, and if you can find even better odds, go for that.
Anthony Colandrea Under 242.5 Passing Yards
This is a pure numbers play. I actually think the Virginia Cavaliers may win this one, but Anthony Colandrea hasn’t come particularly close to this number often this season.
I think the Cavaliers stick to the ground game and try to limit possessions for the Pittsburgh Panthers offense, so even if Virginia pulls off the upset, Colandrea should stay under.
Jackson Arnold Over 43.5 Rushing Yards
The Oklahoma Sooners don’t have an “easy button” on the offensive side of the ball but they may have found something with Jackson Arnold’s legs a couple of weeks ago. With the Sooners as slight favorites, this should be the first four-quarter game they’ve played in a couple of weeks. The offense still isn’t great, but it’s at its best when Arnold succeeds as a runner.
Dylan Sampson Over 126.5 Rushing Yards
It’s taken the college football world a while to come to terms with the fact that the Tennessee Volunteers might be very good and very different from teams of the program’s past. Dylan Sampson is the workhorse and will once again get a ton of carries against a terrible Mississippi State Bulldogs defense.
The number here is actually a bit lower than what Sampson has hit against much better defenses. I don’t think the Volunteers will blow the Bulldogs out, so Sampson should get plenty of opportunities across four quarters.
Jalen Milroe Over 49.5 Rushing Yards
The LSU Tigers’ run fits have been inconsistent at best this season, and Jalen Milroe has the ability to break off big runs. When he gets going, he really gets going. I think against LSU, the Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback will be quicker to run and should be able to pick up yards with his legs.
This is a game in which Milroe needs to be special. When he needs to be special, he uses his legs. Take the over on his rushing yardage.
Nicholas Singleton Over 58.5 Rushing Yards
This is a guess based not on statistics, but on psychology. The Penn State Nittany Lions need to get back to the basics. The basics of the offense are running the best playmaker on the team more than the nine times per game that Nicholas Singleton has run the ball over the last three games.
Expect a return to the running game and expect Singleton to get enough carries to go over a number he hit easily in his first four games.
Ashton Jeanty Over 180.5 Rushing Yards
As Ashton Jeanty has good, but not great games by his standards, his rushing total has ticked down. After Maddux Madsen went off against the San Diego State Aztecs, I think the Nevada Wolf Pack show him a bit more respect, giving Jeanty extra space to work.
He hasn’t hit a big one in a few weeks, so expect that to happen this week.
Jake Retzlaff Under 31.5 Rushing Yards
The Holy War has some juice this year and while I don’t know if the Utah Utes can pull off the upset, I do trust them to take away one or two of the things that have made the BYU Cougars so good this year.
I think Kyle Whittingham prioritizes taking the quarterback run game away from BYU, and that means Retzlaff will have to find his success through the air.
Wayshawn Parker Over 55.5 Rushing Yards
The Utah State Aggies defense is not good. However, John Mateer’s numbers are so high that they bring in questions about resting starters and the general psychology of offensive aggression late in games.
Instead, I’m going with Washington State Cougars’ freshman running back Wayshawn Parker to have a big game against a defense that has struggled to stop many teams this season.
Elijah Sarratt Over 60.5 Receiving Yards
DraftKings Sportsbook has the best number I’ve seen here, with Elijah Surratt’s over set at just 60.5 yards. That’s a great number for the top receiver in a dynamic offense facing a defense with multiple banged-up corners.
Surratt’s production dropped off when Kurtis Rourke was out, but now that the Indiana Hoosiers’ quarterback is back, the star pass catcher should return to early-season form.
Jalon Daniels Under 204.5 Passing Yards
The market is fractured when it comes to Jalon Daniels’ passing totals. This number sits at just 194.5 at DraftKings, but can be found higher at other books. I tend to agree with DraftKings’ assessment, as the Iowa State Cyclones are coming off a loss and looking for a big defensive game.
The cool thing is you can tail me and go with the higher under or fade me and get a much lower number to go over. We love it when the market doesn’t agree on a player prop, and that gives this a ton of value.
Antwane Wells Anytime TD (+140)
The Ole Miss Rebels are really banged up at the receiver position, potentially missing both Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins. Antwane Wells has had a weird career, having plenty of incredible games but often disappearing behind other talented players if there are multiple playmakers on the field.
The good news is that he’ll be the primary playmaker for Ole Miss Saturday, and this number on BetRivers is an outlier from the rest of the market.
Kyron Drones Anytime TD (+175)
I’ve been skeptical of the Clemson Tigers all season, and I think last week’s blowout loss to the Louisville Cardinals proved that this is a decent team, but not a great one. What was surprising, though, was how well Louisville ran the ball on the Tigers.
I wanted to look at some overs for Bhayshul Tuten overs but decided that I liked the value on Kyron Drones to run one in (+175 on BetMGM) a bit more. I think the Hokies will have multiple trips to the red zone for Drones to pull this off.
CJ Bailey Under 1.5 TD Passes
I’m a big fan of CJ Bailey and think he’ll be an excellent quarterback. But while I see the NC State Wolfpack winning Saturday, I see more damage being done on the ground, especially around the goal line.
The Wolfpack love to run direct snaps, quarterback runs, and even trick plays near the goal line more than they like to drop back and throw, and I think Bailey goes under his touchdown total against a solid Duke defense.
Shedeur Sanders Over 324.5 Yards
If you didn’t know better, these last few weeks may have lulled you into thinking that the Colorado Buffaloes vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders might be a defensive struggle. It won’t be, and we’re in for a real shootout.
Take Shedeur Sanders’ yardage over, though I don’t mind sprinkling some other yardage and touchdown props, especially a long shot over 3.5-touchdown bet on the Buffaloes’ QB.
Diego Pavia Under 44.5 Rushing Yards
Diego Pavia’s best trait might be his ability to escape pressure and avoid sacks. But against the South Carolina Gamecocks’ elite defensive front, I expect him to actually get taken down behind the line of scrimmage a few times.
Pavia is still a bit banged up, so I’m not expecting the Vanderbilt Commodores to run as many called runs as it has in the past. These two factors make Pavia’s rushing total under a smart bet.
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