It’s hard to believe it’s been five years since Baylor head coach Dave Aranda was shutting down offenses as LSU’s defensive coordinator. Even harder to believe? This season, he’s gone from being on the hot seat to one of the hottest coaches in the game, thanks to a revitalized offense.
But can Aranda take down his former team in the Texas Bowl? Check out our Baylor vs. LSU prediction to see how we think it’ll play out.
Baylor vs. LSU Texas Bowl Betting Preview
All Baylor vs. LSU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
LSU -3.5 - Spread
Baylor -3 - Moneyline
Baylor -162, LSU -136 - Over/Under
63 points - Game Time
Tuesday, Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
NRG Stadium | Houston, TX - How To Watch
ESPN
LSU is more severely hindered for this game because of opt-outs and the transfer portal. As seems to be the case with several teams this bowl season, the hits are mostly at one position group.
Both Tigers starting offensive tackles are opting out to begin 2025 NFL Draft prep, while the two guards are both question marks as well.
This line has been close from the start, but bettors reacted to the news of LSU’s opt-outs by flocking to the Bears. The line started at Baylor +2.5 and has moved to Baylor -1 in a near pick ’em. The total has ticked up from 57.5 to 59.5.
Baylors’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly lower on the Bears than Vegas, making Baylor a 3.5-point underdog. That’s close to the initial line and translates to an above 40% winning probability.
- vs. LSU: 41.1%
LSU’s Winning Probability
LSU is a small favorite in this one, according to the FPM, with a near 60% chance to beat Baylor and earn its ninth win of the season.
vs. Baylor: 58.9%
Prediction for Baylor vs. LSU
Bowl theory says if you’re unsure which way to lean, go with the team that’s more excited to be there. In the Texas Bowl, that’s Baylor.
The Bears are riding a six-game win streak, powered by a revitalized offense. Two months ago, Dave Aranda looked like he was on the hot seat after starting 2-4. Now, Baylor is playing for its ninth win and some serious momentum heading into next season.
On the flip side, LSU’s season has been a rollercoaster. After opening with a loss to USC, the Tigers rattled off six straight wins, including multiple tight SEC thrillers.
Then the wheels came off. LSU dropped three straight games, averaging just 17 points per outing, before clawing back with wins over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt to close the season.
But LSU didn’t hire Brian Kelly to tread water—they hired him to compete for national titles. Three straight losses after the first College Football Playoff rankings dropped doesn’t scream contender.
While the Tigers are looking to salvage their season, Baylor is aiming to cap theirs in style. The difference in opt-outs and transfer portal entrants tells the story.
FOLLOW ALONG: Track Every Transfer Portal Entrant in our CFN Transfer Portal Tracker now!
I’m especially interested to see how Garrett Nussmeier fares without his elite offensive tackles protecting him. Early in the season, he thrived with time in the pocket and still managed to make plays under pressure. But as the year went on, the cracks showed. Nussmeier threw just three touchdowns and five interceptions when pressured—and got away with more than a few questionable throws.
If Baylor’s defense can consistently pressure Nussmeier, they could force him into mistakes. Given how efficiently the Bears have moved the ball since mid-October, that kind of momentum shift might swing the entire game.
This isn’t your father’s LSU defense. They can get after the quarterback, but there’s not much else to hang their hat on. If Baylor establishes the run, like they’ve done during their win streak, they could put up points in bunches.
Aranda has every reason to want this win against his former team, and Baylor has plenty of motivation to end the season with a seven-game streak. Meanwhile, LSU is already looking to reload through the transfer portal for a College Football Playoff run next year.
When these teams meet on New Year’s Eve, I think that motivation gap matters. Take Baylor to win—and the over. Expect the Bears to jump out early, leaving Nussmeier and the Tigers to play catch-up against soft coverage late.
Motivation matters, and Baylor has it in spades.
Prediction: Baylor 36, LSU 28
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.