The Baylor Bears (6-4) face off against the Houston Cougars (4-6) in a crucial Big 12 clash this Saturday afternoon. Baylor enters the matchup with momentum, fresh off a road win over West Virginia, and boasts a solid 7-3 record against the spread. Meanwhile, Houston looks to rebound from a tough loss to Arizona, though they’ll take the field with confidence, remembering last season’s narrow 25-24 victory over the Bears.
For Baylor, this game is a chance to extend their winning streak and strengthen their postseason resume. For Houston, it’s an opportunity to play spoiler while keeping their bowl hopes alive. Despite their contrasting trajectories, the stakes couldn’t be higher for either team.
Will Baylor continue their surge, or can Houston summon last year’s magic to pull off an upset? Saturday’s showdown holds the answer. Dive into our Baylor vs. Houston prediction and preview as we break down this late-season Big 12 battle.
Baylor vs. Houston Betting Preview
All Baylor vs. Houston odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Baylor -7 - Spread
Baylor -7.5 - Moneyline
Baylor -290, Houston +235 - Over/Under
51 points - Game Time
7:00 p.m. ET - Location
TDECU Stadium | Houston, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
67 degrees, mostly cloudy, 6 mph winds - How To Watch
FS1
Baylor opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and after a brief jump up to -8, it has settled back down to -7.5. The total has seen significantly more movement as the number opened at 51.5 and steadily climbed to 53 before falling past the opening number to 50.5, where it currently sits.
Baylor’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, Baylor has a 71.6% chance of defeating Houston on the road on Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
If the win probabilities hold, Baylor will finish its 2024 campaign at 8-4. This would be the most wins for Baylor since 2021, when it finished 12-2, capped the season off with a win in the Sugar Bowl, and finished No. 5 in the nation in the AP Poll.
- at Houston: 71.6%
- vs. Kansas: 65.7%
Houston’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Houston has a 28.4% chance of defeating Baylor on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, the Cougars would finish their 2024 season at 4-8 in the first year under head coach Willie Fritz. That would match their 2023 record, their last season under former head coach Dana Holgorsen, giving them back-to-back 4-8 seasons for their first two years as members of the Big 12.
- vs. Baylor: 28.4%
- at BYU: 12.2%
Prediction for Baylor vs. Houston
The Baylor Bears are riding the momentum of a three-game winning streak, a remarkable turnaround from their 2-4 start that has locked in bowl eligibility.
Fueled by quarterback Sawyer Robertson’s mobility and the emergence of freshman Bryson Washington, Baylor’s ground game has surged, piling up nearly 1,000 rushing yards over their last four games. The Bears are a perfect 5-0 when rushing for more than 170 yards this season—a trend they’ll look to extend against Houston, a team that hasn’t won when allowing over 90 rushing yards.
Defensively, the Bears have faltered in Big 12 play. After a promising start to the season, their defense has given up 28 or more points in six straight games. Last week’s matchup against West Virginia highlighted those struggles, as Baylor surrendered 499 total yards, exposing weaknesses in their 85th-ranked pass defense and 82nd-ranked rush defense.
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On the other side, the Houston Cougars are fighting to keep their bowl hopes alive, needing wins in their final two games to become eligible. Houston is undefeated (4-0) when forcing two or more turnovers but hasn’t managed a win without them.
Quarterback Zeon Chriss has been efficient, completing 68% of his passes over the last five games. Houston’s offense has shown flashes of potential and will look to exploit Baylor’s defensive lapses. However, the key for Houston will be containing Baylor’s rushing attack to stay competitive.
Playing at home, Houston’s improved play under Chriss and their resilience could make this a nail-biter. Baylor’s reliance on the run and their struggles on the road create an opportunity for the Cougars to cover the spread in what shapes up to be a tightly contested battle.
Prediction: Baylor 31, Houston 27
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