The Big 12 is a jumble of mediocrity in 2024, with a mix of slightly above-average and below-average teams battling it out each week. The Bears vs. Cyclones matchup is a prime example of that chaos.
Baylor is headed in the wrong direction, while Iowa State is on the upswing, boasting an undefeated record so far. Before placing your bets, check out where we stand in this Baylor vs. Iowa State prediction.
Baylor vs. Iowa State Betting Preview
All Baylor vs. Iowa State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa State -11.5 - Spread
Iowa State -12 - Moneyline
Iowa State -455, Baylor +350 - Over/Under
45 points - Game Time
Oct. 5, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa - Predicted Weather at Kick
76 degrees, clear, 14 mph winds - How To Watch
FOX
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas are aligned on this one, as both have the Cyclones as double-digit favorites. With a spread of 11.5/12 points and a total of 45, Vegas implies a final score close to 29-16 in favor of the Cyclones.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
While Baylor’s offense prefers to play fast, Iowa State’s deliberate offensive approach has yielded greater results in 2024. The total reflects the Cyclones’ defensive prowess and Baylor’s strong defensive efficiency numbers.
While the spread hasn’t moved much, the total has ticked down a point from opening.
Baylor’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is closely aligned with Vegas.
FPM has Baylor as a 12-point underdog, giving it a win probability of 19.4%. That represents the Bears’ lowest win probability of any game remaining on the schedule, as the metric gives them a greater than 33% chance to win every other game this season.
- at Iowa State: 19.4%
- at Texas Tech: 36.4%
- vs Oklahoma State: 39.4%
- vs TCU: 49.6%
- at West Virginia: 33.6%
- at Houston: 62.6%
- vs Kansas: 50.0%
Iowa State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Iowa State has an 80.6% chance to win on Saturday. FPM likes the Cyclones in seven of their remaining eight games, but only one of them has a winning probability greater than this weekend’s against Baylor.
In what could be a special season, the Cyclones can’t afford to slip up against lesser competition.
- vs. Baylor: 80.6%
- at West Virginia: 60.6%
- vs UCF: 74.6%
- vs. Texas Tech: 74.9%
- at Kansas: 65.1%
- vs. Cincinnati: 81.6%
- at Utah: 47.5%
- vs. Kansas State: 61.1%
Prediction for Baylor vs. Iowa State
Baylor is sitting at 2-3, and if they’re not careful, this season could spiral quickly. The offense has shown flashes with backup quarterback Sawyer Robertson at the helm, but losses to some of the Big 12’s perceived stronger teams (though the conference hierarchy is still murky) have zapped the Bears’ momentum.
When they’re at their best, the defense can be stingy—but it’s hard to tell if that’s due to facing struggling offenses or if there’s real potential in this unit. Opponents have tried to run the ball often but haven’t found much success. Yet, while completions have been limited, the Baylor secondary has been vulnerable to big plays when tested.
They’ll be put to the test against an efficient Iowa State offense. The Cyclones don’t play at a blistering pace, but they rank 39th in both yards per play and points per play, making the most of each possession.
Defensively, Iowa State is a powerhouse, sitting third in defensive points per drive and 10th in yards per play allowed.
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Offensively, they’ve been clinical in the red zone, but while they rarely allow opponents to reach the red area, the Cyclones have shown some cracks inside the 20.
Purely from a football standpoint, this one looks like a classic defensive battle, with Iowa State’s efficient offense squaring off against a Baylor defense that’s solid in spurts but has struggled with giving up big plays.
From a narrative perspective, a tough road environment against the best defense Baylor will see all season spells trouble—especially given Dave Aranda’s 5-16 record over his last 21 games. If Iowa State starts fast, it’s hard to see Baylor mounting a comeback, particularly in Ames.
If the Cyclones build an early lead, they should be able to pull away gradually and cover, edging close to but staying under the total.
Prediction: Iowa State 30, Baylor 13
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