The battle for the MAC Championship Game comes down to the wire, with the Ohio Bobcats hosting the Ball State Cardinals in a win-and-in showdown on Black Friday. For Tim Albin’s squad, it’s an opportunity to punch their ticket to Detroit. For the Cardinals, it’s a chance to close out a tough season on a high note.
Who will come out on top? Our Ball State vs. Ohio prediction breaks down everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs in the final stretch of the 2024 college football season.
Ball State vs. Ohio Betting Preview
All Ball State vs. Ohio odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 29, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio -11 - Spread
Ohio -17.5 - Moneyline
Ohio -750, Ball State +525 - Over/Under
51.5 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Peden Stadium | Athens, OH - Predicted Weather at Kick
36 degrees, cold with a couple of snow flurries, 9 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS Sports Network
Friday afternoon marks the 28th edition of this Ball State vs. Ohio matchup, with the Cardinals holding a 15-12 head-to-head advantage ahead of the game. However, recent history is very much with the Bobcats, with four consecutive wins stretching back to 2015. Ohio won the last time they met (2022) and is a significant favorite heading into their regular season finale.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
That’s been a comfortable position for Albin’s team this season, which hasn’t lost as a moneyline favorite all season. Additionally, they’re 4-0 ATS in their last four, winning by at least 17 points in that span. Although Ball State is 8-2-1 covering the points line, only two of Ohio’s 11 games this season have gone over the 52.5-point line offered by DraftKings Sportsbook this week.
Ball State’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Ball State has just a 20.1% chance of beating Ohio on Friday afternoon. Our metric projected a 2-10 season for the Cardinals, and if the game goes the way predicted, they’ll end the year with a 3-9 record, outstripping CFN FPM by one win. The program overcame expectations against the Northern Illinois Huskies, winning as a 4.5-point ‘dog.
Ohio’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Ohio has a 79.9% chance of beating Ball State on Friday afternoon. Our metric projected a 9-3 season for the Bobcats, and if they live up to expectations in Week 14, that’s what they’ll end the season with. CFN FPM made Ohio a favorite to beat the Toledo Rockets and South Alabama Jaguars when they were a spread underdog by the major oddsmakers.
Prediction for Ball State vs. Ohio
Ohio heads into Week 14 with a golden opportunity: win against Ball State, and it’s off to Detroit for the MAC Championship Game. It’s an impressive feat, especially considering the challenges the Bobcats faced this offseason. Ohio is a heavy favorite on Friday afternoon and should get the job done.
However, even with a loss, the Bobcats aren’t completely out of the picture—it just gets a whole lot more interesting.
Could Ball State throw a wrench in Ohio’s plans? The Cardinals have struggled this season, losing to the other three contenders for the MAC title and managing just three wins all year. That said, they’ve played spoiler once before—remember their upset over Northern Illinois?
The question is: can they pull it off again in their season finale?
For Ball State to have any chance, the defense needs a massive turnaround in Week 14. Once a top-half MAC defense in scoring, this year’s unit has struggled mightily, allowing 40.6 points per game against the MAC’s top teams—second only to Kent State. Even more concerning is their run defense, which has been a glaring issue.
The Cardinals have given up 5.05 yards per carry, 22 rushing touchdowns, and an eye-popping 8.7 yards per passing attempt, along with 33 passing touchdowns—nine more than any other team in the conference.
Simply put, Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro looks primed for a big day. Navarro has rushed for 758 yards and 11 touchdowns this season, including back-to-back games with over 100 yards and multiple scores.
Expect either RB Anthony Tyus III or WR Coleman Owen to cross the 1,000-yard mark during this game as well.
On the other side, Ball State quarterback Kadin Semonza has had his moments, leading the MAC in touchdowns and completions while forming a strong connection with tight end Tanner Koziol. But the Bobcats’ defense isn’t one to take lightly.
Allowing just 18.5 points per game and racking up nine interceptions, they’re one of the toughest units in the conference. Semonza, who leads the MAC in interceptions thrown, could find himself in trouble trying to keep pace with Ohio’s offense.
It’s a tall task for Ball State to derail Ohio, but stranger things have happened in college football. For now, all signs point to the Bobcats punching their ticket to Detroit.
Prediction: Ball State 17, Ohio 30
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