The MAC is a better place with Pete Lembo back in the fold. After nearly a decade away from the conference—and head coaching altogether—Lembo has returned to lead the Buffalo Bulls. Now, he has them just one win away from bowl eligibility, with a chance to clinch it against his former team, the Ball State Cardinals.
On the other side, Mike Neu could be coaching for his future, as the Cardinals must win out to hit the six-win mark. Will they take the first step on Tuesday, or will Lembo deliver a crushing blow to his old team’s postseason hopes? College Football Network has your Ball State vs. Buffalo prediction covered.
Ball State vs. Buffalo Betting Preview
All Ball State vs. Buffalo odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Buffalo -5 - Spread
Buffalo -3.5 - Moneyline
Buffalo -166, Ball State +140 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 12, 7 p.m. ET - Location
UB Stadium | Buffalo, NY - Predicted Weather at Kick
38 degrees, clear, 4 mph winds - How To Watch
CBS Sports Network
Buffalo is putting together a solid season under Lembo, while Ball State is fighting hard to keep their bowl hopes alive. Among the three MAC matchups on Tuesday night, this one stands out with the tightest spread. A victory for Buffalo could still keep the Bulls in the hunt for a potential MAC Championship berth.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With an over/under set at 53.5 and a 6.5-point spread, Vegas projects a close final score around 30-24 in Buffalo’s favor.
Ball State’s Winning Probability
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter is closely aligned with Vegas, projecting Ball State as a 5.5-point underdog. That translates to a winning probability of 35.4%, the Cardinals’ highest remaining winning probability of the season.
- at Buffalo: 35.4%
- vs. Bowling Green: 28.4%
- at Ohio: 28.4%
Buffalo’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Buffalo has a 64.6% chance of beating the Cardinals at home. While the Bulls have ample opportunities to collect a sixth win, they’d like to get it out of the way early in search of a potential winning record, with a finale against lowly Kent State representing a likely win.
- vs. Ball State: 64.6%
- at Eastern Michigan: 50.8%
- vs. Kent State: 83.3%
Prediction for Ball State vs. Buffalo
First, a quick heads-up for the uninitiated: tread lightly when betting on MACtion.
These games are notorious for delivering the unexpected. Whether it’s wild weather, the unique midweek vibe, breakout performances, or just the unpredictable nature of the MAC, you can almost count on an upset or two every week.
That said, I’m really impressed with Buffalo’s focus on defense and special teams. Shaun Dolac is a legitimate candidate for MAC Defensive Player of the Year and will likely land on several All-American lists (possibly even ours).
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Buffalo has a clear game plan, and they execute it well. If their opponents aren’t ready, it can turn into a grind just to move the ball.
That might spell trouble for a Ball State offense ranked 116th in yards per play. The Cardinals have been clutch in the red zone and excel in situational football, but consistency is a major issue. If Buffalo controls field position and forces Ball State to sustain long drives, it could be a frustrating night for Mike Neu’s squad.
On the flip side, Ball State’s defense might be their Achilles’ heel. While Buffalo’s offense isn’t exactly setting the world on fire (114th in yards per play), they’ll face a Ball State defensive unit that’s far less formidable.
For the Cardinals to come out on top, they’ll need to generate turnovers and win the field position battle, capitalizing on short fields against a Buffalo defense that struggles in the red zone.
The issue? Buffalo doesn’t turn the ball over much, and they’ve got a special-teams mastermind steering the ship.
As chaotic as MACtion can be, the conference does seem to have a clear divide: top-tier teams, bottom-feeders, and those floating in the middle—where Buffalo currently resides. Tuesday night presents the Bulls with a golden opportunity to prove they belong closer to the top than the bottom.
And hey, with a little luck or a few classic MAC-style surprises, Buffalo could find themselves back in the title conversation.
Take the Bulls here and feel cautiously optimistic. Just remember, touchdown spreads are always dicey in the MAC. Also, lean toward the under in what’s likely to be a low-scoring affair. And above all, embrace the unpredictability of MACtion. Enjoy the ride.
Prediction: Buffalo 26, Ball State 17
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