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    Ball State vs. Buffalo Prediction: C.J. Ogbonna, Pete Lembo Rally Bulls to Big Win

    Our Ball State vs. Buffalo prediction breaks down one of the top bets on Tuesday’s slate in a conference known for its unpredictable outcomes.

    The MAC is a better place with Pete Lembo back in the fold. After nearly a decade away from the conference—and head coaching altogether—Lembo has returned to lead the Buffalo Bulls. Now, he has them just one win away from bowl eligibility, with a chance to clinch it against his former team, the Ball State Cardinals.

    On the other side, Mike Neu could be coaching for his future, as the Cardinals must win out to hit the six-win mark. Will they take the first step on Tuesday, or will Lembo deliver a crushing blow to his old team’s postseason hopes? College Football Network has your Ball State vs. Buffalo prediction covered.

    CFN CFB Playoff Predictor
    College Football Network’s College Football Playoff Predictor is a tool that allows you to play out various weekly scenarios to see how the CFP picture changes with each scenario.

    Ball State vs. Buffalo Betting Preview

    All Ball State vs. Buffalo odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      Buffalo -5
    • Spread
      Buffalo -3.5
    • Moneyline
      Buffalo -166, Ball State +140
    • Over/Under
      55.5 points
    • Game Time
      Nov. 12, 7 p.m. ET
    • Location
      UB Stadium | Buffalo, NY
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      38 degrees, clear, 4 mph winds
    • How To Watch
      CBS Sports Network

    Buffalo is putting together a solid season under Lembo, while Ball State is fighting hard to keep their bowl hopes alive. Among the three MAC matchups on Tuesday night, this one stands out with the tightest spread. A victory for Buffalo could still keep the Bulls in the hunt for a potential MAC Championship berth.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    With an over/under set at 53.5 and a 6.5-point spread, Vegas projects a close final score around 30-24 in Buffalo’s favor.

    Ball State’s Winning Probability

    CFN’s Football Playoff Meter is closely aligned with Vegas, projecting Ball State as a 5.5-point underdog. That translates to a winning probability of 35.4%, the Cardinals’ highest remaining winning probability of the season.

    • at Buffalo: 35.4%
    • vs. Bowling Green: 28.4%
    • at Ohio: 28.4%

    Buffalo’s Winning Probability

    Conversely, Buffalo has a 64.6% chance of beating the Cardinals at home. While the Bulls have ample opportunities to collect a sixth win, they’d like to get it out of the way early in search of a potential winning record, with a finale against lowly Kent State representing a likely win.

    • vs. Ball State: 64.6%
    • at Eastern Michigan: 50.8%
    • vs. Kent State: 83.3%

    Prediction for Ball State vs. Buffalo

    First, a quick heads-up for the uninitiated: tread lightly when betting on MACtion.

    These games are notorious for delivering the unexpected. Whether it’s wild weather, the unique midweek vibe, breakout performances, or just the unpredictable nature of the MAC, you can almost count on an upset or two every week.

    That said, I’m really impressed with Buffalo’s focus on defense and special teams. Shaun Dolac is a legitimate candidate for MAC Defensive Player of the Year and will likely land on several All-American lists (possibly even ours).

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    Buffalo has a clear game plan, and they execute it well. If their opponents aren’t ready, it can turn into a grind just to move the ball.

    That might spell trouble for a Ball State offense ranked 116th in yards per play. The Cardinals have been clutch in the red zone and excel in situational football, but consistency is a major issue. If Buffalo controls field position and forces Ball State to sustain long drives, it could be a frustrating night for Mike Neu’s squad.

    On the flip side, Ball State’s defense might be their Achilles’ heel. While Buffalo’s offense isn’t exactly setting the world on fire (114th in yards per play), they’ll face a Ball State defensive unit that’s far less formidable.

    For the Cardinals to come out on top, they’ll need to generate turnovers and win the field position battle, capitalizing on short fields against a Buffalo defense that struggles in the red zone.

    The issue? Buffalo doesn’t turn the ball over much, and they’ve got a special-teams mastermind steering the ship.

    As chaotic as MACtion can be, the conference does seem to have a clear divide: top-tier teams, bottom-feeders, and those floating in the middle—where Buffalo currently resides. Tuesday night presents the Bulls with a golden opportunity to prove they belong closer to the top than the bottom.

    And hey, with a little luck or a few classic MAC-style surprises, Buffalo could find themselves back in the title conversation.

    Take the Bulls here and feel cautiously optimistic. Just remember, touchdown spreads are always dicey in the MAC. Also, lean toward the under in what’s likely to be a low-scoring affair. And above all, embrace the unpredictability of MACtion. Enjoy the ride.

    Prediction: Buffalo 26, Ball State 17

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