The pressure is mounting among Auburn Tigers and Kentucky Wildcats fans, and frustrations are only intensifying. Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops nearly took the Texas A&M job, but stayed only to oversee an offense still searching for answers despite five offensive coordinators in as many years. Meanwhile, Auburn put its faith in Hugh Freeze, yet his offensive expertise hasn’t prevented Auburn from ranking among the nation’s worst in offensive production.
This Saturday’s game feels more like a battle to avoid disaster than a chase for glory, with the losing team facing the prospect of missing out on a bowl game. Can either team step up, or is this matchup simply about avoiding being the worst on the field? Dive into our Auburn vs. Kentucky prediction to see where we stand.
Auburn vs. Kentucky Betting Preview
All Auburn vs. Kentucky odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Kentucky -7 - Spread
Kentucky -1 - Moneyline
Kentucky -115, Auburn -105 - Over/Under
43.5 points - Game Time
7:45 p.m. ET - Location
Kroger Field | Lexington, Kent. - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, partly cloudy, seven mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
Neither Kentucky nor Auburn expected to enter this game under .500 and will desperately want to win Saturday. The line for this game hasn’t really moved after opening at Kentucky -2.5, but the total has ticked up from 42.5 points.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The implied final score of this one is a close Kentucky win, around 23-21, given the current spread and total. That’s indicative of the poor offensive display expected in this one, as neither team has scored more than 21 points against a Power Four opponent this season.
Auburn’s Winning Probability
According to CFN FPM, Auburn has just a 28.4% chance of leaving Kentucky victorious on Saturday. However, things don’t get much easier, as the Tigers finish the season with two games more difficult than this one. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Kentucky: 28.4%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 34.9%
- vs. UL-Monroe: 66.4%
- vs. Texas A&M: 13.2%
- at Alabama: 5.9%
Kentucky’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Kentucky has a 71.6% chance of overcoming the Tigers at home. It’s extremely important that the Wildcats get to 4-4 Saturday — they’ll be heavy underdogs in two of their four remaining games.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Auburn: 71.6%
- at Tennessee: 11.7%
- vs. Murray State: 98.0%
- at Texas: 7.2%
- vs. Louisville: 49.2%
Prediction for Auburn vs. Kentucky
This could turn out to be like a slow-motion car wreck – you know it’s headed for disaster, yet you just can’t look away.
Offensive struggles have plagued these teams, though in different ways. Kentucky entered the season with big questions at quarterback. Sure, they have some skill position talent, and yes, Brock Vandagriff was a five-star recruit back in 2021. But for Kentucky’s offense to take off, they needed an untested upperclassman to perform at an elite level.
So far, Vandagriff ranks 17th in the SEC in passer rating and 18th in yards per attempt. The run game hasn’t provided much support either, with the Wildcats sitting 83rd nationally in yards per rush.
On the other side, Freeze assured Auburn fans that even without a big-name quarterback transfer, his skill players and play-calling would carry the offense. Yet, the outcome has been as expected.
Payton Thorne has thrown six interceptions, most at the worst possible moments. Even when he’s playing relatively well—which has been more often than anticipated—the Tigers’ offense appears disjointed.
Both Auburn and Kentucky’s offensive lines have underperformed, leaving each team ranked outside the top 100 in points per game, with no clear offensive identity.
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Expect a low-scoring game, though a big play or two might sneak through. Both defenses have been tough but vulnerable to deep shots – just ask DJ Lagway, who averaged nearly 37 yards per completion against the Wildcats last week.
The stats are screaming to take the under, yet there’s a chance both teams stumble into some passing success. I’m still expecting a low score, but it might get close to the total. Ultimately, this one will likely hinge on turnovers, an area where Auburn has been generous to opponents.
Take Kentucky with the points in a close, gritty win.
Prediction: Kentucky 24, Auburn 21
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