No Group of Five player has had an impact on the national college football landscape in recent years quite like Boise State Broncos’ superstar Ashton Jeanty. He took the college football world by storm with a 2,601-yard 2024 season, earning a trip to New York as a Heisman Finalist.
But what kind of impact can he have on an NFL team, and is he going to be a rare first-round running back pick?
Ashton Jeanty Scouting Report
Size: 5’9″, 215 pounds (Unverified)
Key Stat: First player since Travis Etienne (2019) with at least 150 rushing attempts and > 5.0 yards after contact per rush.
Projected Role: Three-down Starting Running Back
Also See: Top 300 Prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft
Strengths:
- Elite contact balance
- Almost never goes down on first contact
- 151 forced missed tackles in 2024. Only Cam Skattebo (102) and Bijan Robinson (104) had > 100 forced missed tackles in a single season since tracking began in 2014.
- Speed to get to corner and to extend long runs
- Mature, patient runner who waits for blocks to develop
- Can make multiple cuts or moves on one run, often in rapid succession.
- Strong lower body, keeps legs churning, hard to stop in short-yardage situations.
Areas of Concern:
- Considerable college mileage (750 career carries)
- Willing, but unrefined pass-protector
- Can be loose with ball when fighting for extra yards
Ceiling: Perennial All-Pro Three-Down Back
Floor: Top 16 Starting Running Back
Ashton Jeanty NFL Draft Outlook
The biggest question when it comes to superstar Ashton Jeanty is how much impact a starting running back can have.
For Jeanty, the answer is apparently a lot, as he carried a decent Boise State team to a top 10 finish and College Football Playoff bye. Jeanty’s consistency in the 2024 season was remarkable, as he ran for at least 100 yards against every team he faced, thriving even against stacked boxes.
His pad level, contact balance, and raw power are exceptional, giving him one of the highest floors and the highest ceilings in this draft class and he becomes a top 10 back the day he steps foot on an NFL field. There’s a considerable amount of mileage on his tires, so to speak, however.
Compared to past elite running back prospects, Ashton Jeanty has by far the most college carries, with considerably more carries (750) than Bijan Robinson (539), Christian McCaffrey (632), and even Saquon Barkley (671). However, I think the importance of that is a bit overblown, as several of the NFL’s brightest stars are “older” running backs with plenty of carries over the years.
It doesn’t hurt in that regard that Jeanty only had 273 carries in high school, far fewer than most of the aforementioned stars. In fact, he has the least tread, of the four when combining high school and college carries.
Also See: College Coaching Carousel
Jeanty “burst onto the scene” in 2024, but many forget that he also led the country in yards per carry after contact in 2023 as well. The sample size is huge to know that his traits will translate.
While he didn’t catch many passes as a junior, Jeanty caught 43 passes for 569 yards as a sophomore, best in the country among running backs. There are some technical inconsistencies in pass-protection, but nothing in his profile to suggest that he’ll struggle in that area in the NFL.
Bottom Line: Basically, the traits and production translate. He’s going to be a consensus top-10 player on draft boards and will end up in the top 5 (perhaps top 3) on mine. Though he plays a de-valued position, he’s entering the league in a great year, as Barkley has shown the impact an elite back can make.
There’s a reason fantasy football dynasty managers tanked early last season, because Jeanty’s floor is elite. As long as the team that drafts him gives him touches, he’ll make an impact. His contact balance and raw lower-body power will make him as close to a surefire star as you can find in the draft. At best, he’ll challenge Barkley and McCaffrey for the title of the best in the league. At worst, he’ll be better than your league-average back.
Draft Projection: Round 1
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