The Army Black Knights finished their first season in the American Athletic Conference with an unblemished conference record. They also are set to hose the AAC Championship Game against perennial contender Tulane Green Wave in Week 15.
They were ranked with the No. 24 overall ranking in the College Football Playoff Rankings, but that hardly does anything for the Black Knights’ playoff aspirations, sadly.
Army’s AAC Championship Odds
Entering Week 15’s Conference Championship weekend, Army was given a 9.23% chance to make the College Football Playoffs. That’s because, even with being a potential home favorite against Tulane in some markets, a win over the Green Wave wouldn’t guarantee the needed move up in the rankings they would need.
Army would need to move their ranking up quite a bit to reach Boise State, that’s a given, but could the case be made for the Black Knights to overtake UNLV in the playoff hunt?
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We can break that down, but as of right now, Army’s first task has to be winning against Tulane and handling their business to leave the best version of themselves in the college football playoff selection committee’s eyes.
Then, and only then, can we talk about their potential playoff candidacy.
Army’s College Football Playoff Road Map
So, in this scenario, Army handles their business at home and knocks off Tulane to earn the AAC Championship. Could their victory be so good in the committee’s eyes that they jump over UNLV or Boise State?
Here’s how those three teams found themselves ranked in the latest iteration of the playoff rankings:
- No. 10 — Boise State
- No. 20 — UNLV
- No. 24 — Army
If Army wins, you can expect for them to move up. You can also expect a loser in the Mountain West Championship Game to move down.
But in the same vein that Army is set to move up with a win, you can expect the same to happen for the winner of the MWC Championship.
And no mater how you slice it, it appears that Army’s road map to the playoffs is set to meet a dead end.
If Boise State wins, they likely earn as high as the No. 3 seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs. But if UNLV beats Boise State, that would absolutely be a quality win and likely cements UNLV to take the Broncos’ place in the top 12 spots, guaranteeing the Rebels place in the playoffs.
In the same token, that would cement Army’s spot as well out of the race for the Group of Five spot in the top 12 teams. For Army, winning the AAC is a great way to end an incredibly solid 2024 campaign, even if they just miss out on the playoffs.
If they do miss the playoffs, watch out Navy. The Black Knights will be looking to take out their frustrations on someone. And a Week 16 date with the Midshipmen is a perfect place to do so.
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