The new College Football Playoff format has undeniably shifted the landscape, and Week 13 showcases that more than ever, with the Army Black Knights taking center stage in one of the week’s marquee matchups. They’re looking to avoid the fate of their service academy counterpart, the Navy Midshipmen, who watched their undefeated streak come to a crashing halt in a blowout loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Will this showdown tell a different story, or are the Fighting Irish set to shatter yet another perfect run? Let’s break it all down—spread, total, and the outright winner—in this Army vs. Notre Dame prediction.
Army vs. Notre Dame Betting Preview
All Army vs. Notre Dame odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Notre Dame -11.5 - Spread
Notre Dame -14 - Moneyline
Notre Dame -625, Army +455 - Over/Under
45 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 23, 7 ET - Location
Yankee Stadium | New York - Predicted Weather at Kick
45 degrees, partly cloudy, 12 mph winds - How To Watch
NBC
Can Army do what Navy failed to do a few weeks ago? There are a lot of question marks here as the Black Knights enter undefeated and as the second-highest Group of Five team in the College Football Playoff but boast the 11th-easiest schedule in the FBS, per CFN’s SOS metric. Notre Dame showed its dominance against an undefeated Navy, will Army fare any better?
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Both teams have dreams of the College Football Playoff — Army as the Group of Five automatic bid and Notre Dame as an at-large — and the winner will bolster its résumé. With a spread of 14 and a total of 45.5, Vegas expects a final score close to 30-16 in favor of the Fighting Irish.
Army’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM gives Army a better chance to win this game than Vegas does, making the Black Knights just 11.5-point underdogs and giving them an 18.9% to win outright. The Black Knights with be favored in their last two, so an upset win would likely put them in a position to be undefeated.
- vs. Notre Dame: 18.9%
- vs. UTSA: 83%
- vs. Navy: 81.1%
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
Notre Dame is well on its way to making the College Football Playoff if the Fighting Irish win out. They’ll be favored in both of their remaining games, with an 81.1% chance to beat the Black Knights at Yankee Stadium.
- vs. Army: 71.6%
- at USC: 73%
Prediction for Army vs. Notre Dame
“Notre Dame blew out Navy, so why shouldn’t the Fighting Irish do the same to Army?”
It’s a valid question, and one worth examining closely. If there’s no strong evidence that this game will differ from Notre Dame’s 51-14 rout of the Midshipmen, then the choice seems simple—take the Irish with the points and move on. But of course, it’s not that straightforward.
This isn’t just about whether Army is better than Navy, though our simulations suggest they are (and yes, Navy’s lopsided loss to Notre Dame factors into that). Football isn’t played on paper. To understand how this game could unfold, you have to focus on what actually carries over from week to week. When you do, it’s easy to see how the Black Knights could not only keep this game competitive but even flirt with an upset.
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In Notre Dame’s matchup with Navy, the Midshipmen were overpowered by the Irish’s ground game. A defense that allows 4.5 yards per carry on the season got shredded for 6.6 yards per attempt, as Notre Dame posted a jaw-dropping 76% rushing success rate. Navy simply couldn’t stop the bleeding or get off the field.
Army, however, fields one of the nation’s elite run defenses, allowing just 2.9 yards per carry—good for fifth-best in the country.
Offensively, Navy wasn’t completely outmatched. The Midshipmen managed a respectable 47% rushing success rate (below their season average but still solid) and averaged 5.5 yards per carry. The problem wasn’t moving the ball; it was capitalizing on opportunities and avoiding mistakes. Navy’s four scoring chances yielded just seven points, and half of their 12 turnovers this season came in that game.
Army, by contrast, is the best team in the nation at protecting the football, with only four giveaways all season. The Black Knights also rank in the top 15 in points per scoring opportunity and second nationally in defensive points per scoring opportunity.
If Notre Dame’s formula against Navy was “run the ball and force turnovers,” Army is well-equipped to counter. The Black Knights are versatile offensively—they can score quickly when needed or grind out long, clock-draining drives in classic service academy fashion, as they demonstrated against North Texas.
The X-factor will be quarterback Bryson Daily. If he can provide even a modest contribution through the air, Army has a real shot to keep Notre Dame on edge. That said, the talent gap is undeniable, and the Irish aren’t likely to overlook this game as they might against other lesser opponents. In the end, Notre Dame should come away with the win.
However, if Army can hang tough early, Saturday night’s game on NBC could become far more compelling than most expect.
Prediction: Take the under—service academy games almost always trend that way—and back the Black Knights to cover. Army is better than people realize, and this matchup gives them the perfect stage to prove it against a top-tier opponent.
Prediction: Notre Dame 23, Army 17
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