Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Prediction: Razorbacks, Taylen Green Need to Pull Off Massive Upset Victory

    The Southwest Classic is back as the Razorbacks and Aggies clash in Arlington. Find out who comes out on top in our Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Week 5 prediction.

    The Texas A&M Aggies and Arkansas Razorbacks, part of the Southwest Classic, will meet at AT&T Stadium in Arlington for the last of their neutral site encounters. Who has the advantage in a seemingly must-win game for both programs?

    Our Arkansas vs. Texas A&M prediction holds the answer.

    Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Betting Preview

    All Arkansas vs. Texas A&M odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Sept. 27, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      Texas A&M -1.5
    • Spread
      Texas A&M -5.5
    • Moneyline
      Arkansas +180, Texas A&M -218
    • Over/Under
      51.5
    • Game Time
      Saturday, Sept. 28, 3:30 p.m. ET
    • Location
      AT&T Stadium | Arlington, Texas
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      80 degrees
    • How To Watch
      ESPN

    This line has seen a ton of movement from the opening number, dropping considerably from Texas A&M -10.5 to -4, and now sits at -5.5. Arkansas has surprised some and has some backing in the betting public.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    The total has been less volatile. It opened at 51.5 and jumped a point to 52.5, but settled back down at 51.5 once more on Friday.

    Arkansas comes into this SEC showdown 3-1 against the spread and 2-0 against the spread as an underdog. The Aggies are 1-3 against the spread and are 1-3 ATS as a favorite, only covering on the road at Florida.

    Arkansas Remaining Winning Probabilities

    It could be said that the Razorbacks need to pull off the upset against the Aggies for more than a handful of reasons. Sure, to help head coach Sam Pittman off the proverbial hot seat, but also to get any sort of momentum building into what is a tough stretch of games this year.

    Using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and Strength of Schedule, we can take a look at all the remaining winning probabilities for Arkansas this year.

    • Tennessee 18.4%
    • LSU 21.9%
    • @ Mississippi State 66.4%
    • Ole Miss 16.5%
    • Texas 11.7%
    • Louisiana Tech 89.1%
    • @ Missouri 11.4%

    What a tough stretch indeed. Arkansas should be favored in just two fo their remaining games following the A&M contest, and the games they’re not favored in, could be close to double-digit underdogs. With Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss, and Texas coming to town, the home fans may grow increasingly wary of the current regime if they can’t get it going in SEC play.

    Texas A&M Remaining Winning Probabilities

    Using the same numbers from above, we take a look at the remaining games for Texas A&M. It’s not as tough for the Aggies, but it certainly doesn’t get any easier as they get into conference play some more.

    • Missouri 31.2%
    • @Mississippi State 75.3%
    • LSU 33.6%
    • @ South Carolina 49.6%
    • New Mexico State 94.3%
    • @ Auburn 57.4%
    • Texas 19.4%

    The Aggies should be favorites in at least three contests down the stretch, but may find themselves battling a big uphill battle against the top-tier teams in the SEC on the schedule. It just so happens that these three teams come to town, and like the Arkansas fans, could grow wary if the Aggies aren’t at least competitive in these games against Missouri, LSU, and Texas.

    Prediction for Arkansas vs. Texas A&M

    Conner Weigman is still working his way back from the AC joint sprain he suffered in Week 1 and will once again be a game-time decision for Texas A&M. Even if he’s cleared to play, there’s no guarantee he’d start over Reed, who has brought an undeniable spark to the Aggies’ offense.

    For the third time in five years, the Razorbacks have kicked off the season at 3-1 or better under head coach Sam Pittman. Offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino adds a compelling narrative to this matchup, boasting a 4-0 record in Southwest Classic games.

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    Petrino went 3-0 in this series during his time as Arkansas’ head coach from 2009-11, and he was on the other side last season as the offensive coordinator for Texas A&M’s win. Now he’s back in Fayetteville, orchestrating a surprisingly potent Razorbacks offense.

    I won’t say it’s a bold prediction, but I had a little more faith in this Arkansas squad than most did heading into the season. The SEC preseason coaches poll pegged them to finish 14th out of 16 teams. While I didn’t expect them to contend for an SEC title, I thought they could crack the top 12 in the conference.

    Much of that optimism hinged on Petrino and his ability to build this rushing attack around Green and Jackson. Jackson currently leads the SEC with 471 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, and I think Texas A&M will have a hard time containing him.

    Combine that with a rather average Texas A&M offense, and I’m taking the Razorbacks to pull off the upset on Saturday. A win over the Aggies would give Arkansas its first 2-0 start in SEC play since 2006, and I believe they’ll get it done.

    Prediction: Arkansas 27, Texas A&M 24

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