The Battle Line Rivalry between the Arkansas Razorbacks and the Missouri Tigers is one of the newest in college football, officially established in 2014. Despite its youth, the Tigers have dominated the series, boasting an 11-4 record all-time and winning the last two matchups.
In our Arkansas vs. Missouri preview, we dive deep into the matchup, providing key betting insights to help you make informed and confident picks.
Arkansas vs. Missouri Betting Preview
All Arkansas vs. Missouri odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Missouri -4 - Spread
Missouri -3 - Moneyline
Missouri -162, Arkansas +136 - Over/Under
51 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 30 - Location
Memorial Stadium | Columbia, Mo. - Predicted Weather at Kick
31 degrees, 5 mph winds, snow showers - How To Watch
SEC Network
Arkansas is red-hot on the road this season, going 7-0 ATS in its last seven games. Missouri has done well for itself, too, owning a 5-1 ATS record in the past six contests.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Total-wise, the over has hit in 10 of the Razorbacks’ previous 15 games. However, the under has cashed in eight of the last 12 Missouri-Arkansas matchups.
Arkansas’ Winning Probability
The Razorbacks secured a third bowl berth under Sam Pittman after defeating the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 35-14 last week. Yet, it wasn’t pretty, as they went 1-5 against ranked opponents, including back-to-back losses to the Ole Miss Rebels and Texas Longhorns just a couple of weeks ago.
- at Missouri: 38.1%
Missouri’s Winning Probability
The Tigers are going bowling for the fourth straight year under head coach Eli Drinkwitz, but they had hoped for more after winning 11 games last season. Although injuries, particularly to QB Brady Cook, and staff/roster turnover diminished the ceiling, Missouri can still cap off their regular-season campaign with a Battle Line Trophy.
- vs. Arkansas: 61.9%
Prediction for Arkansas vs. Missouri
Let’s dive into the analytics, but first, let me just say—I’m backing Missouri right out of the gate, and here’s why: this is Brady Cook’s final collegiate game. The seasoned quarterback has proven time and time again that he’s a winner, and I can’t see him closing out his regular-season career with a loss.
Alright, back to the numbers.
Arkansas might boast the nation’s ninth-ranked offense (457.9 yards per game), but their 114th ranking in net field position wipes out much of that production. Even with those yards, they’ll face a tough task putting points on the board against Missouri’s defense, which has been rock-solid across the board:
- Third-down conversion rate allowed: 28.9%, No. 5
- Defensive TDs: 3, tied No. 9
- Red-zone defense: 80.0%, tied No. 40
- Defensive EPA: -0.060, No. 25
- Defensive success rate: 37.2%, No. 30
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Offensively, Missouri complements its defense by keeping drives alive and flipping field position. They’re No. 15 in third-down conversion rate (47.3%), No. 22 in red-zone efficiency (90.7%), and No. 34 in offensive EPA (0.053).
The Razorbacks don’t just fall short in the analytics—they’ve struggled with discipline, too, racking up 13 more penalties for 112 additional yards and holding a -7 turnover margin compared to Missouri’s +5.
Missouri has the edge on both sides of the ball. Take the Tigers to win and cover, with the total leaning toward the over.
Prediction: Missouri 30, Arkansas 25
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