The Arkansas Razorbacks may hold the edge in their all-time series against the Mississippi State Bulldogs (18-15-1), but it’s been the home team celebrating victory in the last two matchups. Will they extend their streak to three in Week 9?
Our Arkansas vs. Mississippi State prediction breaks down the game, providing essential betting insights to guide your wagers.
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Betting Preview
All Arkansas vs. Mississippi State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Arkansas -11 - Spread
Arkansas -7.5 - Moneyline
Arkansas -285, Mississippi State +230 - Over/Under
55 points - Game Time
12:45 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 26 - Location
Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Miss. - Predicted Weather at Kick
80 degrees, 4 mph winds, sunny - How To Watch
SEC Network
The total has only shifted by half a point, but the spread has moved 1.5 points in Mississippi State’s favor since opening.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
At first glance, Arkansas backers might be thrilled, as the Razorbacks have covered the spread in their last six road games. Yet, they’re just 1-5 in their last six against Mississippi State, with the Bulldogs consistently stepping up in these matchups.
This season, the teams have taken different paths on totals: Arkansas has hit the under in four of their last five, while Mississippi State has hit the over in four games over that same stretch.
Arkansas’ Winning Probability
Arkansas has already tied its win total from last season (four), but there are still five games to go. With a 79.6% win probability against Mississippi State, the Razorbacks could conceivably earn their fifth win in Week 9, but their next could be a few weeks out.
- at Ole Miss: 33.1%
- at Texas: 16.5%
- at Louisiana Tech: 88.6%
- vs. Missouri: 25.4%
Mississippi State’s Winning Probability
The Bulldogs have lost six straight. When looking at the rest of their schedule, there is only one obvious win: vs. UMass in Week 10. After a 20.4% rate against Arkansas, Mississippi State doesn’t have a win probability above 10% in its final three games.
- vs. UMass: 67.7%
- at Tennessee: 2.0%
- vs. Missouri: 9.2%
- at Ole Miss: 4.8%
Prediction for Arkansas vs. Mississippi State
The Bulldogs are winless in their last eight games against SEC opponents—and Saturday doesn’t look like the streak-breaker.
With Blake Shapen out for the season, freshman Michael Van Buren Jr. has struggled, completing just 53.5% of his passes for 792 yards (6.9 per attempt), with six touchdowns and two interceptions.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
On the other side, while Taylen Green hasn’t been significantly sharper for the Razorbacks, he’s managed a few deep connections and added value on the ground. Plus, Arkansas’ offense has been more efficient, converting over 50% of third downs and averaging 454.9 yards per game, compared to Mississippi State’s 379.0.
Even with Arkansas RBs Ja’Quinden Jackson listed as doubtful and Rodney Hill questionable, the Razorbacks still appear to hold the edge against the Bulldogs’ defense.
Prediction: Arkansas 27, Mississippi State 13
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