After a lackluster midweek slate in Week 2, college football is back with a strong Week 3 lineup. Things get started off with an excellent non-conference matchup between the Arizona State Sun Devils and Texas State Bobcats.
Can Texas State give the Sun Belt a signature win over a Big 12 foe, or will Arizona State continue to roll offensively?
Arizona State vs. Texas State Betting and DFS Preview
Arizona State ran all over Mississippi State in a 30-23 win, while Texas State throttled rival UTSA 48-7, excelling in every facet of the game. Before you bet, take a look at our Arizona State vs. Texas State prediction.
All Arizona State vs. Texas State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Sept. 12.
- Spread
Arizona State -1 - Moneyline
Arizona State -110 Texas State -110 - Over/Under
59.5 points - Game time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Jim Wacker Field at UFCU Stadium, San Marcos, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
90 degrees, 5 mph winds, clear - How to Watch
FuboTV, ESPN
This line is, unsurprisingly, very close and likely won’t move more than a point or two in either direction. Both offenses have been both efficient and explosive, ranking in the top 20 in points per game through two weeks. It’s rare to see a Power Four team go on the road to play against a Group of Five team these days, so is there a betting advantage between Arizona State and Texas State?
This game could be a shootout, and it’s one of the better Thursday games of the entire season. That’s reflected in both the spread (Arizona State -2, as of this writing) and the total (58.5 points). You’ll want to pay attention to both the line and total as they adjust throughout the week, as they’re close to key betting numbers.
Group of Five teams don’t typically get the full three points for being a home team, but UFCU Stadium will be rocking for a national telecast against a beatable Power Four team Thursday.
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Arizona State, led by quarterback Sam Leavitt, has spread the ball effectively among its playmakers, making much of the offense unpredictable. However, running back Cam Skatebo stands out, accounting for more than half of the team’s 69 receiving yards on Saturday.
Skatebo also rushed for 262 yards, and while he hasn’t found the end zone much, that shouldn’t be a concern—he’s a must-start for this game. If Leavitt’s performance aligns with expectations, he’s a strong option thanks to his mobility and ability to score in goal-line situations.
On the other side, Jordan McCloud is averaging close to 275 passing yards per game and has scored twice on the ground. He might throw a pick or two, but he’s a consistent high-scorer at quarterback and will likely be one of the top options, possibly just under Skatebo. Texas State’s quarterback should be a focal point, as Mississippi had some success through the air against Arizona State last week.
For the Bobcats, Joey Hobert and Chris Dawn Jr. form a dynamic receiving duo, each totaling over 140 yards and two touchdowns this season. However, they’ve been inconsistent—Hobert shined in the opener, while Dawn dominated UTSA in Week 2.
A more reliable play is running back Ismail Mahdi, who has 37 carries for 187 yards this year. While he hasn’t found the end zone much yet, his touchdown production is bound to increase—potentially this week—making him a solid option.
Arizona State vs. Texas State Prediction
Arizona State’s strong start to the year has been surprising, especially in Kenny Dillingham’s second season. However, a few factors in their winning streak seem unsustainable.
First, their Week 1 win came against one of the weakest offenses in the FBS, Wyoming, which struggled and handed Arizona State two interceptions and a fumble, two of which led to defensive touchdowns. They also scored a defensive touchdown against Mississippi State. While Arizona State’s offense has been good, the “39 points per game” stat is somewhat misleading.
Offensively, the Sun Devils are one of 21 teams in college football without a turnover in 2024, despite finishing 113th in giveaways last season. They’ve also been perfect on fourth-down conversions. It’s only a matter of time before they turn the ball over, and it’s unrealistic to expect their defense to keep scoring touchdowns every game.
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Texas State has the offensive firepower to challenge Arizona State. McCloud is among the most talented quarterbacks in the Group of Five, and Mahdi is a physical runner capable of wearing down a defense. Arizona State, currently ranked sixth in time of possession, hasn’t faced an opponent like this. The Bobcats, who can also control the clock, could disrupt Arizona State’s game plan.
This matchup is likely to be high-scoring and close to the projected total. If the Sun Devils don’t remain flawless in the turnover battle, Texas State has strengths elsewhere to exploit. While I don’t have a strong feeling about this game, some regression could bring Arizona State back to reality.
Consider a small bet on the slight underdog.
Prediction: Texas State 34, Arizona State 31
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