The Arizona State Sun Devils are your 2024 Big 12 Champions. And now, the Arizona State Sun Devils are College Football Playoff bound. But, where they rank on Sunday’s College Football Playoff Rankings remains the lone mystery.
And where the Sun Devils land in these rankings should shape the rest of the 12-team playoff.
Projecting Arizona State’s College Football Playoff Ranking
So, here we are. After being picked to finish dead last, the Sun Devils are on top of the Big 12. They utterly dominated an Iowa State team with a mix of run and pass, doing so without their top playmaker at wide receiver.
Kenny Dillingham’s team is red hot and QB Sam Leavitt is playing well beyond his years. Cam Skattebo is a bonafide stud that the nation is coming around to, and the Sun Devils have rounded into an 11-2 record that is in near-perfect form.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Making matters even more difficult for the college football playoff selection committee is the fact that Arizona State’s dominance on Saturday could potentially warrant a hefty jump in their rankings. And that convolutes things for Boise State and the eventual winner of the ACC.
In order to project the prospective ranking they’ll receive, we need to set the tone first.
Here’s the way the teams were ranked on the last iteration and their next opponent, if they have one.
- Oregon (vs. Penn State; Big Ten Championship Game)
- Texas (vs. Georgia; SEC Championship Game)
- Penn State (vs. Oregon; Big Ten Championship Game)
- Notre Dame
- Georgia (vs. Texas; SEC Championship Game)
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- SMU (vs. Clemson; ACC Championship Game)
- Indiana
- Boise State
- Alabama
- Miami-FL
- Ole Miss
- South Carolina
- Arizona State
- Iowa State
- Clemson (vs. SMU; ACC Championship Game)
As a friendly reminder, the four highest-ranked conference champions make up the top-four seeds and earn a first-round bye in the playoffs. Despite their ranking at No. 15, the Sun Devils could jump as high as No. 4 in the next playoff ranking, if not No. 3.
Let me explain.
Boise State just handled their business on Friday night against UNLV, further cementing the Broncos into the playoffs. Though, it remains to be seen just how high the committee will be willing to move the Broncos after a 21-7 victory over the Rebels.
Is a one-loss Mountain West Champion like Boise State primed to sit at a No. 10 ranking? And would a two-loss Big 12 Champion like Arizona State jump the Broncos after they dominated against Iowa State?
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And then you have to factor in the ACC here because it’s clear that the winners of the SEC and the Big Ten games will earn the top two spots, whoever they are.
If SMU loses, that opens up the possibility of Boise State and Arizona State earning first-round byes and leaving Clemson as the potential last team in. You also have to worry about how close Clemson is to Arizona State in the last rankings, but it’s hard to see the Tigers looking as dominant as the Sun Devils did in their title game.
At this point, the CFN College Football Playoff Predictor gives the edge to SMU to hold their own, meaning Arizona State could still find themselves ranked outside the top four conference champions and be subject to landing near the 10-12 range.
With Arizona State and Boise State in, here are the likely first-round matchups following each of these results:
- If SMU wins:
- Arizona State likely earns the 12th seed and would play:
- @ No. 5 Notre Dame
- Arizona State likely earns the 12th seed and would play:
- If Clemson wins:
- Arizona State likely earns the 4th seed and would play:
- the winner of the 5-vs-12 game, likely Notre Dame, but in the Fiesta Bowl
- Arizona State likely earns the 4th seed and would play:
It’s not quite that simple, overall, but in the grand scheme of things, the largest projections by our model puits Arizona State’s most likely first opponent in the playoffs as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
It’s just a matter now of where they play them — in Round 1 on the road, or in Round 2 and closer to home.
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